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   FOUS30 KWBC 150830   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   330 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST, AND   
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...   
      
   A closed mid-level low will cut across the Southeast and into the   
   Atlantic today. A squall line propagating through the Central Gulf   
   Coast this morning will weaken into more of a QLCS as it=20   
   progresses through the Southeast this afternoon. Severe=20   
   thunderstorm are possible over portions of Alabama, Georgia and=20   
   Florida, where instabliity will be the greatest (300-600 J/Kg=20   
   MUCAPE). That combined with PWATs in the 1-2" range and a 30-40kt   
   LLJ could generating efficient rain rates capable of producing=20   
   isolated flash flooding. Relatively dry soils and the progressive=20   
   nature of the QLCS mitigate the flash flood threat in the=20   
   Southeast.=20   
      
   A deeper layer moisture profile over the Mid-Atlantic   
   and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys may produce higher areal totals today,=20   
   but the rates are more likely to be lower than in the Southeast due   
   to less CAPE. That being said, some upslope enhancement is possible   
   over portions of the Central/Southern Appalachians, where soils are   
   fairly saturated/susceptible to flash flooding.   
      
   ...California...   
      
   A deep low pressure system will slowly glide down the California   
   coastline today, while the mid-level shortwave associated with it   
   weakens. Rounds of showers and scattered to isolated thunderstorms   
   could produce instances of flash flooding, particularly over urban   
   areas, burn scars and saturated soils beginning this afternoon.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   An East Pacific trough will strengthen and move into the Western   
   United States on Monday. This deepening upper pattern will draw up   
   subtropical moisture and direct it at California. IVTs and PWATs   
   will be above the 90th percentiles over portions of southern   
   California. Strong upper level winds (125-150 kts) and a modest LLJ   
   (30-40 kts) could support efficient rain rates along the coast.   
   CAPE between 100-250 J/Kg within a moist environment could produce   
   1"/hr rain rates. Burn scars, upslope areas (where enhancement   
   could occur) and urbanized areas are especially susceptible to   
   flash flooding.=20   
      
   Ensemble mean probabilities of exceeding 2" in 24   
   hours support the slight risk area (15% chance of flash flooding),   
   especially in southern California where probabilities in the ECENS   
   and CMCE are well over 50%.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   Another disturbance breaks off from its parent low centered over   
   the Pacific Northwest and brings a weaker round of rainfall to the   
   California coast on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may develop   
   over southern California Tuesday evening due to the presence of   
   weak instability and a strong LLJ (40-50 kts).   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9111LA2QBPQsuI0X0KQJU9ovDHaJpKbq1s8uX1fbAvdF=   
   LIOtu4Fk6ahLK_DLaQ7lwo_073ZQzZjaxYv6Gc1w08RpGo8$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9111LA2QBPQsuI0X0KQJU9ovDHaJpKbq1s8uX1fbAvdF=   
   LIOtu4Fk6ahLK_DLaQ7lwo_073ZQzZjaxYv6Gc1wuMSpzOg$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9111LA2QBPQsuI0X0KQJU9ovDHaJpKbq1s8uX1fbAvdF=   
   LIOtu4Fk6ahLK_DLaQ7lwo_073ZQzZjaxYv6Gc1w7vwSM58$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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