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   ACUS03 KWNS 150829   
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   SPC AC 150828   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal   
   areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday   
   night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper   
   Midwest Tuesday night.  However, the risk for severe storms appears   
   low.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone, initially   
   offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, will weaken while migrating   
   inland Tuesday.  However, an associated intense offshore northerly   
   mid/upper jet streak is forecast to continue digging southeastward   
   toward coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay, through the   
   southern Sierra Nevada, maintaining amplified larger-scale troughing   
   across and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.   
      
   The remnants of a preceding inland migrating trough, including at   
   least a couple of emerging smaller-scale perturbations, are forecast   
   to pivot east and northeast of the Rockies, across much of the   
   middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, as a broad   
   belt of seasonably strong west-southwesterly flow continues   
   developing to the lee of the southern Rockies through the Mid   
   Atlantic Seaboard.   
      
   In lower levels, the latest model output suggests that initially   
   deep surface troughing, along an axis from the northern Rockies into   
   the central and southern Great Plains, will shift across the middle   
   and lower Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.  However, it   
   appears that it will slowly weaken as it does, and stronger   
   southerly low-level flow across the central/southern Great Plains   
   into Ohio Valley is likely to maintain a notable westerly component.   
    Coupled with preceding low-level drying across much of the Gulf   
   Basin, low-level moisture return will be rather limited beneath a   
   warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the   
   central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower   
   Mississippi Valley.   
      
   ...Pacific Coast...   
   Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early   
   Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas.  However, the   
   primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm   
   development, seems likely to become focused across northern and   
   central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday   
   afternoon into Tuesday night.  This will accompany strong mid-level   
   cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper   
   jet.  Stronger cells may become capable of producing at least small   
   hail and gusty winds, but it is not yet clear that thermodynamic   
   profiles will support activity approaching or exceeding severe   
   limits.   
      
   ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...   
   There appears at least some signal in the latest model output that   
   the limited moisture return, coupled with strong differential   
   lower/mid-tropospheric thermal advection, could support weak   
   elevated convection capable of producing lightning in a corridor   
   spreading northeast of the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday evening.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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