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   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   232 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
      
   ...Cascades & Olympics...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   On Monday, a strengthening 500mb closed-low west of British   
   Columbia will slide south and just off the coast through Tuesday.   
   Sharp height falls and excellent 500mb PVA, combined with an   
   influx of 850-300mb mean-layer moisture and upslope enhancement,   
   will produce periods of snow over the Olympics and Cascades. Snow   
   levels will plummet to as low as 800ft around the WA Cascades and   
   Olympics, while 2000ft snow levels in the OR Cascades will be more   
   common. In fact, some of OR's coastal range could see snow to   
   elevations as low as 1,000ft. While these snow levels are getting   
   quite low, snowfall totals below 2,000ft in the WA/OR Cascades will   
   remain light. The heaviest snowfall will reside above 3,000ft   
   where 72-hour WPC probabilities remain in the moderate range   
   (40-60%) for additional snowfall totals >4" for both Snoqualmie   
   Pass and Stevens Pass. Given the long duration but lack of heavy   
   hourly rates, WSSI-P shows the chances for Minor Impacts are   
   generally on the low side (20-40%). Impacts are most likely to be a   
   combination of snow covered roads and reduced visibilities.   
      
      
   ...California...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   ...Multiple days of heavy and disruptive snowfall to affect the   
   California mountain ranges beginning Sunday and continuing into   
   next week...   
      
   A pair of potent Pacific storm systems will work together to direct   
   copious amounts of moisture at the mountain ranges of the "Golden   
   State" beginning today and lasting into the middle of the upcoming   
   week. A broad positively-tilted upper level troughing pattern off   
   the Pacific NW coast will supply low-mid level moisture that   
   allows for light snow through tonight into the higher terrain of   
   the Siskiyou, Shasta, and Salmon Mountains. The heaviest snowfall   
   through Sunday are likely to reside above 5,000ft where 1-2 feet of   
   new snow accumulation are possible at the higher elevations   
   through Sunday night.   
      
   By Sunday night, the upper low approaches, causing mid-to-upper   
   level heights to fall over CA and the strengthening IVT to direct   
   subtropical moisture at the state. The state will be placed ahead   
   of a 500mb jet streak that will generate excellent upper- level   
   divergence aloft, along with a barrage of Pacific moisture and   
   strong topographically-enhanced snowfall rates. Monday marks the   
   beginning of heavy snowfall along the Sierra Nevada with snow   
   levels initially starting out around 6,000ft from north to south   
   initially, then falling to as low as 3,000ft by Monday night.   
   Farther north, snow level will dip below 3,000ft across northern CA   
   as the other potent Pacific trough approaches from the northwest.   
   Snowfall rates between 1-2"/hr will be common with some instances   
   of >3"/hr snowfall rates in the central and southern Sierra   
   Nevada. Heavy snow is also expected in the Transverse Ranges above   
   6,000ft.   
      
   By Tuesday, another round of heavy snow is expected across just   
   about all of the CA mountain ranges as a second, strong upper   
   level low dives south along the West Coast, enhancing onshore flow   
   and supplying additional moisture on the southern and eastern   
   flanks of the upper low. Snow levels will fall to around 1,000 ft   
   in far northern California (including the northern coastal range),   
   around 2,500ft in the Sierra Nevada, and just below 5,000 ft into   
   the Transverse Ranges with snow continuing to fall across the   
   state's mountain ranges into Wednesday.   
      
   California's mountain ranges welcome the snow, although it will   
   come down fast and furious both Monday and Tuesday. Through the   
   end of this discussion's timeframe (12Z Wed), multiple feet of   
   snow will have fallen above 5,000ft along the Sierra Nevada. WPC   
   probabilities show high chances (>70%) for >30" of snow having   
   fallen along the I-80 pass by 12Z Wednesday and more snow still to   
   come. The WSSI shows a large swath of Extreme Impacts (Substantial   
   disruptions to daily life; extremely dangerous travel or impossible   
   driving conditions, extensive closures) for elevations generally   
   above 6,000ft, although some Extreme impacts as low as 5,000ft are   
   possible. Major to locally Extreme impacts are showing up in the   
   peaks of the San Gabriel and San Bernadino mountains, with mostly   
   Moderate-to-Major Impacts (increasingly more disruptive to travel   
   jumping from Moderate to Major). Note that there are also Minor to   
   locally Moderate Impacts along I-5 around Mount Shasta, signifying   
   potential travel delays for I-5 in the more elevated terrain of   
   northern CA.   
      
      
   ...Intermountain West...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Pacific moisture ahead of the longwave upper trough off the West   
   Coast will spill over the Cascades and Sierra Nevada and reach many   
   ranges across the Intermountain West today and into the upcoming   
   week. With a lack of a frigid airmass ahead of this healthy   
   moisture source, snow will largely be confined to many of the   
   taller mountain peaks that sorely need beneficial snowpack. The   
   heaviest snowfall will reside in the Bitterroots, the Lewis Range,   
   Sawtooth, and the Blue Mountains where  Farther south, most   
   accumulations in the Great Basin, the Wasatch, Uinta, Mogollon Rim,   
   and CO/NM Rockies will be on the lighter side. The peaks around   
   Zion Nat'l Park on north along the Wasatch sport moderate-to-high   
   chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals >4". Otherwise, most mountain   
   ranges are likely to see 1-4" of snowfall through Monday.   
      
   On Tuesday, the highly anomalous upper-low off the Pacific NW coast   
   will help to usher the initial upper low over southern CA east into   
   the Intermountain West, causing widespread height falls and a   
   larger footprint of Pacific moisture to track through the Rockies.   
   Snow levels will lower to the valley floors in western Mt and   
   northern ID, with some light snow possible even in the Salt Lake   
   City area. Still, the lack of a frigid airmass at the surface will   
   keep the bulk of the heavy snow in the mountains with ranges such   
   as the Wasatch, Bear River, Tetons, Uinta, and Wind River seeing   
   locally heavy snowfall along their peaks. Many of the CO ROckies   
   will also receive snowfall, but the heavier amounts >8" will be   
   confined to elevations above 9,000ft.   
      
   72-hour WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for snowfall   
   totals >8" for most of the Intermountain West's ranges, but the   
   locally heavier total's (>12") are most likely to occur in the   
   peaks of the Lewis Range, the Bitterroots, Sawtooth, Blue, Bear   
   River, Wasatch, and Uinta.   
      
      
   ...Upper Midwest & Great Lakes...   
   Day 3...   
      
   By 12Z Tuesday, the remnant yet vigorous trough that was originally   
   over southern CA late Monday will race across the Rockies and   
   project excellent 500mb PVA over the northern High Plains. The   
   ECMWF SATs shows a roaring 150kt 200mb jet streak (wind speeds   
   topping the 99.5 climatological percentile) over the Southwest will   
   place its divergent left-exit region over the Great Plains. With   
   the aid of lee-side downsloping and low-level WAA across the   
   Plains, an exceptionally deep surface low will form over southern   
   MT that reaches as low as 980mb Tuesday morning, or MSLP values   
   that are below the 1st climatological percentile. As WAA ahead of   
   the warm front reaches across the Upper Midwest, strong isentropic   
   ascent will ensue as the warm/moist air runs into a colder/drier   
   air-mass over northern ND and northern MN. Precipitation initially   
   starting as rain Tuesday afternoon will changeover to snow over   
   northeast MT, northern ND, and as far east as the MN Arrowhead   
   Tuesday night. Meanwhile, from northern MN and northern WI to the   
   northern tier of Michigan's Mitten, the overrunning setup would   
   favor a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain Tuesday night and   
   into Wednesday morning. WPC probabilities show low chances (10-30%)   
   for pockets of over one-tenth of an inch of ice accretion in parts   
   of northern WI and MI.   
      
   There remains a high degree of uncertainty in the storm track, as   
   well as when the transition to snow would occur. Snow beneath the   
   strengthening TROWAL over northeast MT and northern ND would   
   perhaps not only support heavy snow, but the impressive strength of   
   the cyclone itself would foster blowing snow on its northern and   
   western flanks.In terms of snowfall, the MN Arrowhead sports low-   
   to-moderate chances (30-50%) for >4" of snowfall through 12Z Wed.   
   Most of far northeast MT, northern ND, and northern MN have   
   moderate chances (40-60%) for >2" of snowfall, but this is an area   
   where any minor change in duration or placement in the deformation   
   axis could result in notable changes to the snowfall forecast.   
   Regardless, the pressure gradient will be tight enough to where all   
   of these areas have moderate chances (40-60%) for Minor Impacts   
   (per WSSI-P) due to some combination of snowfall amounts of blowing   
   snow through early Wednesday morning.   
      
      
   ...Northeast...   
   Day 1...   
      
   The airmass in the northern Mid-Atlantic and latest guidance   
   continues to favor areas farther north from southeast PA across   
   the Delaware River and into NJ and as far east as Long Island for   
   light snowfall. WPC probabilities show low-to moderate chances   
   (30-50%) for snowfall totals >1" from the Delaware and Lehigh   
   Valleys on east to Long Island, but probabilities for >2" of   
   snowfall are <30%, indicating that most totals are minor and   
   likely to range between a coating-2" from southeast PA (with   
   elevation) on east through northern NJ and across the NYC metro.   
   Snow should peak in intensity Sunday night and conclude by Monday   
   morning.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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