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   ACUS11 KWNS 150716   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 150715=20   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-150915-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0082   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0115 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...far southeast Louisiana and   
   far southwest Alabama   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...   
      
   Valid 150715Z - 150915Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts and brief embedded   
   circulations is expected to continue across portions of the lower   
   Mississippi River Valley and into far southwest Alabama over the   
   next several hours.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS continues to progress eastward   
   across the lower MS River Valley per regional radar mosaics. KDGX   
   imagery has sampled at least two tornadic debris signatures within   
   the past hour on the northern flank of a bowing segment of the line   
   where 0-1 km SRH is on the order of 400 m2/s2 per KDGX VWP   
   observations. However, this section of the line is moving into a   
   drier, less buoyant airmass, and lightning activity has been   
   decreasing within the past 20-30 minutes. While brief circulations   
   will remain possible in the near-term (next hour or so), a gradual   
   weakening of the line is anticipated roughly along and north of   
   Highway 84 in southern MS/southwest AL.=20   
      
   Further south, more backed southerly winds imply slightly weaker   
   low-level shear, but a recent 06 UTC sounding from LIX sampled   
   around 280 m2/s2 effective SRH within a sufficiently buoyant air   
   mass preceding the line. This environment will continue to support   
   organized convection with the potential for strong/severe wind gusts   
   and embedded mesovortices - especially where more meridional   
   segments can become established within the line. Coastal surface   
   observations show mid-60 dewpoints spreading as far east as the   
   MS/AL border, suggesting that the downstream environment is   
   favorable for maintaining the QLCS for several more hours along and   
   just north of the coastline.   
      
   ..Moore.. 02/15/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!5fmz25g4_ErYRqp5PgsQIB5rwjm5zNCFAOstfwyLI5OQVwfLEONDjAF8Lxr5l84FS8cKMZm8b=   
   FOvAvr6hEmn5HsZgZk$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...   
      
   LAT...LON   29339104 29839059 30968982 31338968 31838979 32168995   
               32378989 32528970 32548925 32448876 32228846 31958832   
               31708825 31168816 30818815 30428824 30308846 30258872   
               30138887 29928912 29648940 29298980 29139007 29069045   
               29049069 29159104 29339104=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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