TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169538.weather@1:2320/105 2df92cf6   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 150559   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 150557   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS   
   PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas,   
   mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and   
   perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at   
   least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of   
   tornadoes.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   General trends concerning the mid/upper flow evolution depicted in   
   prior model runs for this period continue.  To the northeast of a   
   blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude   
   Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), a vigorous short wave   
   perturbation is forecast to undergo further amplification while   
   digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest   
   coast.  It appears that this will be accompanied by   
   lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially   
   significant downstream trough inland across California and much of   
   the Great Basin by late Monday night.   
      
   As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop   
   farther inland during the latter half of the period, becoming   
   centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern   
   Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday.  Farther downstream, models indicate   
   that warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air will continue advecting   
   northeastward, overspreading much of the central and southern Great   
   Plains and Gulf Basin.  At the same time, further lower tropospheric   
   cooling and drying appears probable across much of the Gulf Basin,   
   in the wake of mid-level troughing and an associated rapidly   
   deepening surface cyclone migrating away from the middle and   
   southern Atlantic Seaboard.   
      
   It still appears that the inland migrating mid/upper-level troughing   
   will be accompanied by an intense jet (including a 100-110+ kt speed   
   maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California   
   through the Four Corners.  Forcing associated with this feature may   
   be promoting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by   
   the beginning of the period.  The low may deepen a bit further while   
   occluding and migrating inland near or south of the San Francisco   
   Bay vicinity during the day Monday.   
      
   ...Southern California coast...   
   Models continue to suggest that a corridor of low-level moistening,   
   along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, may   
   gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support   
   deepening convective development while spreading inland across   
   coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los   
   Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning.   
   Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling,   
      
   thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm   
   development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.  Wind   
   profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb   
   level, with sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs   
   developing, mainly where the favorable orientation of the Transverse   
   Ranges with respect to the low-level flow contributes to backing of   
   near-surface wind fields.  As this occurs, the environment may   
   become conducive to the development of supercells capable of   
   producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts.   
      
   ...Central Valley...   
   There is notable spread evident among the various model output, but   
   at least some guidance suggests that the inland migrating low, and   
   perhaps an associated lingering mid-level cyclonic circulation, may   
   contribute to a focused area of lift, weak low-level destabilization   
   and strengthening shear by Monday afternoon.  NAM forecast   
   soundings, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggest that the   
   environment might become conducive to the risk for a brief, weak   
   tornado or two.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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