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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 150539   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 150538   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1138 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST   
   ALABAMA ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA   
   PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of   
   northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.   
   Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A fast-moving shortwave trough will move across the Southeast today,   
   with gradual filling/weakening. Moderate midlevel winds over 60 kt   
   will spread across AL, GA and northern FL, enhancing deep-layer   
   shear, while a weak surface low translates east/northeast from AL   
   into the eastern Carolinas. South of the low, a warm front will   
   stretch roughly from southern AL into the northeast Gulf Sunday   
   morning, and will lift north into GA during the day and ahead of an   
   approaching cold front. The combination of lift along the front,   
   strong shear profiles and sufficient instability will likely result   
   in scattered severe storms producing wind and perhaps a few   
   tornadoes throughout the day.   
      
   ...Southern AL and GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...   
   A squall line is positioned from southwest MS into southeast LA late   
   Saturday evening, coincident with the strong midlevel cooling with   
   the upper wave. This line of storms is likely to progress eastward   
   to at least the MS/AL border before 12Z, and perhaps even into   
   central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Southerly surface winds   
   will help bring mid 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of the line,   
   though much of the area will maintain relatively marginal moisture   
   with 50s F dewpoints until the squall line/cold front is near.   
      
   Given the favorable synoptic lift and sufficient instability, the   
   line of storms is likely to persist throughout the day, perhaps with   
   renewed vigor as it travels across northern FL/southern GA during   
   the peak heating hours. Even if the moisture is not particularly   
   robust well inland, steeper boundary layer lapse rates combined with   
   the linear storm mode and 30-40 kt winds just off the surface will   
   support damaging gusts. For southern areas, higher dewpoints as well   
   as 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support rotation with the line with   
   a few QLCS tornadoes possible.   
      
   ..Jewell/Supinie.. 02/15/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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