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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   754 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   ARKANSAS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT AREAS OF TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   The highest areal averaged rainfall through the overnight hours=20   
   will likely be across portions of southern to central AR into the=20   
   immediate adjacent portions of southwest TN and northwest MS. It is   
   here where convergence and forcing will be maximized, resulting in   
   rainfall totals generally in the 1-3" range. Weak instability this   
   far north will limit rainfall rates and limit the magnitude of the   
   flash flood risk. Recent HRRR runs generally support hourly=20   
   rainfall of 0.5" or less over AR, with very localized totals=20   
   around 1". This is below FFG, and 1hr to 3hr FFG exceedance=20   
   probabilities from the HREF are very low. However, the duration of   
   rain here will be long enough to locally push event totals over 3",   
   which may start to approach or locally exceed the 6hr FFG (10-20%=20   
   HREF exceedance probs). Thus we will maintain the Slight risk to   
   account for this potential, although this risk likely falls on the   
   lower end of the Slight risk probabilistic range (which is=20   
   15-40%).   
      
   Farther south over the lower MS Valley better instability will   
   support an eastward moving squall line into the overnight hours.=20   
   This activity will have higher rainfall rates (locally 1-2" per=20   
   hour) but should stay progressive enough to limit the flash flood=20   
   risk to mainly an isolated urban threat.   
      
   Chenard   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST, AND   
   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...21Z Outlook Update...   
      
   The ongoing outlook is generally on track although a few changes   
   were made across Tennessee/Kentucky and across central California   
   coastal areas. At the beginning of the period, a deformation zone   
   should set up pretty close to the Kentucky/Tennessee border region   
   and spread a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rainfall across   
   those areas. 1-2.5 inches of total rainfall is expected from 12Z   
   Sun through 00Z Mon. These rainfall totals should gradually create   
   sensitive ground conditions and result in at least minor runoff   
   issues in a few spots. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward   
   into southern Kentucky and middle Tennessee as a result.   
      
   Across California, models depict a frontal band of convection   
   developing over the central CA coast before gradually shifting   
   southward during the 00Z-12Z Monday timeframe. Areas of 0.5-1.5   
   inch rainfall totals are expected, and these totals could fall in   
   1) a short amount of time and 2) across urban/sensitive ground   
   conditions. Areas of flash flooding could result.   
      
   The remainder of the outlook is on track with no changes needed.   
   See the previous outlook below for more details.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Previous discussion...   
      
   The marginal risk area from yesterday's issuance remains mostly   
   the same, with the only change being an expansion northward in   
   Virginia. The potent low pressure system that will bring heavy   
   rainfall to the Lower Mississippi Valley today will continue to   
   spread moderate to heavy rainfall over parts of the Southeast and   
   Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur   
   Sunday afternoon into evening in the Southeast, along the same   
   cold front responsible for potential linear convection over the   
   central Gulf Coast today.   
      
   MLCAPE will be modest at around 250-500 J/Kg, while PWATs hover   
   between 1-1.75" over the Southeast. Phasing of this southern stream   
   system with a northern stream one emerging from the Ohio Valley   
   could enhance precip. coverage over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon   
   into tonight.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...21Z Outlook Update...   
   The ongoing forecast is on track. Convection should organize along   
   a surface front and gradually shift southward across central and   
   southern California coastal ranges. Favorable low- to mid-level   
   trajectories exist for substantial upslope/orographic ascent and   
   local areas of 1.5-3 inch rainfall totals. These rainfall rates are   
   likely to occur over sensitive areas and varied terrain, resulting   
   in instances of flash flooding. A Slight Risk area remains in place   
   to address the threat.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   A slight risk was introduced, in coordination with local offices,   
   across parts of the central and southern California Coast. A closed   
   mid-level low will weaken while shedding lobes of vorticity over   
   the West Coast on Monday. An upper-level jet streak (100-140 kts)   
   will gradually increase in intensity throughout the day as it sags   
   south from central to southern California. A surface wave will   
   develop and spread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms into the   
   central to southern coastal ranges below 6500-5000ft Monday   
   morning and into the early evening.   
      
   PWATs in the 0.5"-0.9" range within a relatively buoyant   
   atmosphere (100-200 J/Kg) and a 30-40 kt low level jet, could   
   support efficient rain rates especially within any convection that   
   develops. Burn scars will be especially susceptible to flash   
   flooding.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9WR8mkYQ-MpYUaOTybPiJnLLrXSeM2JqZyAjrP9240JJ=   
   ezAnZadjIrQ8r0eURceMez17rI-Dvs3GcgJFHkhea1Pf6sI$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9WR8mkYQ-MpYUaOTybPiJnLLrXSeM2JqZyAjrP9240JJ=   
   ezAnZadjIrQ8r0eURceMez17rI-Dvs3GcgJFHkheuhnLpEA$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9WR8mkYQ-MpYUaOTybPiJnLLrXSeM2JqZyAjrP9240JJ=   
   ezAnZadjIrQ8r0eURceMez17rI-Dvs3GcgJFHkhe-7NNmVY$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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