TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169527.weather@1:2320/105 2df8ce78   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 142316   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 142315=20   
   TXZ000-150045-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0077   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0515 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of the Middle Texas Coast and vicinity   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20   
      
   Valid 142315Z - 150045Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for locally higher severe   
   potential. The main concerns would be severe hail and locally   
   damaging gusts. The need for a watch is uncertain.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing along/behind the   
   tail end of a composite outflow boundary/cold front moving toward   
   the Middle Texas Coast, with additional weak warm-advection-driven   
   development in the warm sector. As a robust midlevel jet impinges on   
   the area, a continued increase in development is expected during the   
   next couple hours. It is possible that storms continue to be focused   
   on the cool side of the outflow boundary/front, and remain slightly   
   elevated as they approach the coast. Nevertheless, the strengthening   
   large-scale ascent, around 60 kt of effective shear, and 1500 J/kg   
   MUCAPE may favor organized clusters and supercell structures --   
   posing a risk of severe hail and locally damaging gusts. It is   
   unclear if a targeted watch is needed, though trends are being   
   monitored.   
      
   ..Weinman/Hart.. 02/14/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9UdPtkghmoV8vcNkq8TgIrkmTSenqmHQidj-Hae_7mMVbOipDeyI659tkEW1AFWZy3zH7XqKr=   
   mhNbGmnb-jBOQU6Ruc$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...   
      
   LAT...LON   27809763 28079788 28429796 28749783 28969750 29089713   
               29029684 28729649 28369646 27719703 27809763=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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