TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169526.weather@1:2320/105 2df8ac22   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 142049   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 142048=20   
   TXZ000-142245-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0076   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0248 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of south-central TX   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 142048Z - 142245Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A discrete cell has recently intensified across   
   Maverick and Zavala Counties, while other more disorganized storms   
   continue to develop near/north of a sagging outflow in the San   
   Antonio vicinity. The undercutting outflow has tended to limit storm   
   duration and intensity thus far, but the Zavala County cell may have   
   a somewhat better opportunity to persist as it moves nearly parallel   
   to the outflow over the next 1-2 hours. Additional isolated cells   
   may develop later this afternoon across parts of south-central TX,   
   as relatively strong heating and ascent attendant to an approaching   
   mid/upper-level shortwave trough continue to erode an initially   
   substantial capping inversion.=20   
      
   MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear are   
   conditionally supportive of organized convection, and some threat   
   for severe hail and wind may accompany any persistent cells through   
   the afternoon. At this time, the severe threat is expected to remain   
   rather isolated, with the southeastward-moving outflow potentially   
   limiting the duration of any discrete cells. Uncertainty regarding   
   the coverage of the threat renders watch issuance unlikely, though   
   trends will continue to be monitored for development of multiple   
   longer-lived cells.   
      
   ..Dean/Gleason.. 02/14/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4FcMgJe9WZD1Q5cv21gRscscfMAnVfkE7i3ge87Rtd6HbpoGM5KSi9n5mo0dXlLrBUxzbtJwt=   
   Tg97sdGcavkwadPP6U$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...   
      
   LAT...LON   29040067 29919824 30029733 29979701 29529690 29079699   
               27709743 27779815 28080027 29040067=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/20 90 221/1 6 360 226/18   
   SEEN-BY: 226/20 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426   
   SEEN-BY: 229/428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111   
   SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426