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   MSGID: 169531.weather@1:2320/105 2df8dfa1   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 150029   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 150027   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0627 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Valid 150100Z - 151200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN   
   TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight from   
   eastern Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes   
   along with scattered damaging winds will be possible.   
      
   ...Sabine into the Lower Mississippi Valley...   
   A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from TX toward the lower MS   
   Valley through Sunday morning, providing lift and cooling aloft. At   
   the surface, low pressure will move from the ArkLaTex area into   
   northern MS, with a cold front trailing southwest from the low.   
      
   Ahead of the cold front, the air mass will continue to moisten as a   
   warm front lifts northward across southern LA and eventually   
   southern MS and AL late. Behind the warm front, dewpoints will   
   likely rise into the mid 60s F, aided by veering low-level winds and   
   40-50 kt at 850 mb.   
      
   The combination of increasing low-level shear will likely result in   
   effective SRH values over 200 m2/s2, perhaps near 300 m2/s2 where   
   non-zero low-level buoyancy exists. Given the rapid progression of   
   the upper trough, a squall line is likely to be maintained   
   overnight, possibly reaching southwest AL by 12Z. Both damaging   
   winds and a few embedded/QLCS tornadoes will be possible as this   
   line interacts with the increasingly moist air mass. The main   
   mitigating factor to overall magnitude of severe will be the   
   instability values, with MLCAPE averaging 500-750 J/kg overnight.   
      
   For more information see mesoscale discussions #0078 and #0079.   
      
   ..Jewell.. 02/15/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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