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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 150023   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 150023=20   
   TXZ000-150230-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0079   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0623 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of the Middle and Upper Texas Coast   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...   
      
   Valid 150023Z - 150230Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes will   
   continue eastward to the coast during the next few hours -- within   
   Tornado Watch #5.   
      
   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KHGX depicts an organized   
   squall line moving eastward along a surface cold front at around   
   35-40 kt toward the Middle and Upper TX Coast. Ahead of the line,   
   the HGX VWP is sampling a 40 kt low-level jet, which is contributing   
   to large clockwise hodograph curvature (250-300 m2/s2 effective   
   SRH). While the frontal forcing and 50-60 kt of line-parallel   
   effective shear is promoting a continued linear mode (with a   
   severe-wind risk), the ample streamwise vorticity and upper 60s to   
   near 70 boundary-layer dewpoints is also favoring embedded   
   circulations/supercell structures and a tornado risk. The risk of   
   severe wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado or two will continue   
   to the coast during the next few hours -- within Tornado Watch #5.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 02/15/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!8vRHWYJkH77u3Z-NzSjdJnUXbiTp50_uUsRvz8ph5974fX8IxpyLIBCaCeYtyRbM_Ly-z-ygJ=   
   QGr05XajpQTBzXV2Rw$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...   
      
   LAT...LON   29359614 29969556 30569492 30729444 30679405 30369381   
               29949385 29609409 28729545 28609594 28929622 29359614=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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