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   ACUS11 KWNS 150003   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 150002=20   
   MSZ000-LAZ000-150200-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0078   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0602 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Much of Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20   
      
   Valid 150002Z - 150200Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue spreading eastward across   
   Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi tonight. The primary concern   
   will be a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A downstream   
   tornado watch will be issued in the next hour or so.   
      
   DISCUSSION...An increasingly organized north/south-oriented squall   
   line is tracking eastward along a surface cold front at around 30 kt   
   in far eastern TX. Damaging gusts have been a concern with this   
   activity -- given the primarily linear mode, though transient   
   circulations have also posed a risk of brief tornadoes.   
      
   Ahead of the line, the SHV and POE VWPs already show a large   
   clockwise-curved hodograph (upwards of 300-350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). As   
   a robust midlevel trough continues eastward, this wind profile will   
   be maintained over the warm sector, with additional strengthening of   
   the low-level jet possible. While buoyancy will remain somewhat   
   limited with eastward extent, the favorable wind profile,   
   strengthening low-level mass response, and moist pre-convective air   
   mass will continue to favor an organized line with embedded   
   mesovorticies and supercell structures. As a result, damaging wind   
   gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary concerns (and a strong   
   tornado cannot be ruled out). A downstream tornado watch will be   
   issued in the next hour or so.   
      
   ..Weinman/Hart.. 02/15/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!6rIIGZluFHLJc6D7vGmWFry8W2rdVNgx7pznQVJsXQ8w1bDdkm1xoumvd86PmXEfo0RztY5jL=   
   x7-51Y5EEGM7wJpTSs$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...   
      
   LAT...LON   30669359 32039315 32709283 32959245 32969193 32909114   
               32709055 32379018 31879015 31079025 29949062 29619100   
               29449215 29539292 29689332 29959364 30669359=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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