TZUTC: 0000   
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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 142006   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 142005=20   
   LAZ000-TXZ000-142230-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0075   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0205 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of east TX into western LA   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20   
      
   Valid 142005Z - 142230Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to gradually increase   
   through the afternoon. Watch issuance may eventually be needed,   
   though timing is uncertain.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS has developed across parts of   
   north-central TX early this afternoon, with occasional weak   
   low-level rotation noted along the leading edge of the line. Weak   
   buoyancy and poor low-level lapse rates have likely limited the   
   severe threat thus far across north TX, while a persistent capping   
   inversion (noted on the 18Z CRP/LCH soundings and a special College   
   Station sounding) has inhibited development of deep convection   
   farther south into central TX. However, increasing ascent associated   
   with an approaching mid/upper shortwave trough and filtered diurnal   
   heating are expected to weaken the cap and gradually increase   
   warm-sector buoyancy with time. An increase in storm coverage and   
   organization is still expected by late afternoon along the composite   
   outflow/cold front, as convection approaches east TX.=20   
      
   Area VWPs generally depict gradually strengthening low-level flow   
   and enlarging hodographs, and this trend is expected to continue as   
   low-level mass response increases and a surface low begins to   
   consolidate and deepen near the ArkLaTex by late afternoon/early   
   evening. The strengthening ascent and effective SRH may result in   
   development of a more organized QLCS across parts of east/southeast   
   TX by late afternoon. While questions remain regarding the impact of   
   poor low-level lapse rates (as noted on the 18Z SHV sounding) on the   
   north and east extent of the severe threat, gradually increasing   
   damaging-wind and line-embedded tornado potential may necessitate   
   watch issuance by mid to late afternoon.   
      
   ..Dean/Gleason.. 02/14/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!7uyUkjTDfaWIkAFGKHGyXsHtWL6NncK0eHNYsDsJrP41tbOwPGUkEv26k7IzUpWrQzWYSK6tK=   
   zsfDjfnJC-T_q2VBds$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...   
      
   LAT...LON   32619549 32629478 32619424 32539369 32249346 31309336   
               30599350 29189384 28949524 29339613 29719677 30359662   
               31229634 32619549=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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