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   ACUS01 KWNS 142001   
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   SPC AC 142000   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0200 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Valid 142000Z - 151200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this   
   afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east   
   Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered   
   damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   Relatively minor changes were made in portions of Central Texas   
   where stabilization has occurred behind earlier-day convection. A   
   line of convection moving into East Texas is still expected to   
   intensify later this afternoon as the shortwave trough progresses   
   east and the boundary layer continues to warm/destabilize. Some   
   semi-discrete/discrete activity also remains possible in the   
   vicinity of San Antonio. Outflow pushing south and deep-layer shear   
   parallel to the outflow continues to suggest large hail and damaging   
   wind potential will remain isolated. See the previous discussion for   
   additional information.   
      
   ..Wendt.. 02/14/2026   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/   
      
   ...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...   
   A southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to   
   move quickly eastward across the southern Plains/northern Mexico   
   today, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. At the   
   surface, a weak low over northwest OK late this morning will develop   
   towards the ArkLaTex by this evening while gradually deepening. An   
   attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward across   
   central/east TX in tandem with the surface low, and will likely   
   provide a focus for robust surface-based convection later this   
   afternoon/evening. The northern extent of the surface warm sector is   
   forecast to remain somewhat constrained by slowly eroding surface   
   high pressure centered over the Carolinas, with a warm front   
   expected to make only slow progress northward across LA and the   
   central Gulf Coast States through the end of the period.   
      
   Ongoing, loosely organized convection extending from north-central   
   to southwest TX may pose an isolated threat for hail and gusty winds   
   through the rest of this morning into mid afternoon. With continued   
   filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass, it   
   still appears likely that a gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage   
   and intensity will occur across parts of central/east TX by mid to   
   late afternoon. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this   
   region indicate MLCAPE will likely be hindered to some extent due to   
   saturated low-level profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates.   
   Still, the risk for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase   
   from late afternoon into the evening as convection gradually   
   consolidates into a line amid strengthening low/mid-level   
   south-southwesterly flow and related low-level/deep-layer shear.   
   Some guidance suggests potential for a supercell or two with   
   southward extent across central TX. If this occurs, than a locally   
   greater threat for large hail may exist given somewhat more   
   favorable mid-level lapse rates with southward extent amid the   
   presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, confidence in this   
   scenario occurring remains too limited for a Slight Risk expansion   
   into central TX at this time.   
      
   Some risk for line-embedded tornadoes should also exist this evening   
   into early Sunday morning from parts of east TX into LA with the   
   bowing line, particularly as effective SRH becomes maximized with an   
   increasing southerly low-level jet across the warm sector. The   
   potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the line remains   
   unclear. Instability is expected to become meager with eastward   
   extent late tonight/Sunday morning along the central Gulf Coast,   
   which should result in a gradual weakening of the line towards   
   sunrise/the end of the period. Still, the threat for at least   
   isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may persist   
   given the ample low-level shear forecast.   
      
   ...Western North Texas into Western/Central Oklahoma...   
   Cold mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18C at 500 mb) will be   
   present across parts of western north TX into OK this afternoon as   
   the upper trough continues eastward over the southern Plains. While   
   residual low-level moisture and weak MUCAPE will be present beneath   
   the upper trough, relatively modest low/mid-level winds should   
   generally temper the threat for large hail with any widely spaced   
   cells that can develop this afternoon.   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
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