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   FOUS11 KWBC 141922   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   222 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 00Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
      
   ...Cascades...   
   Days 1 & 3...   
      
   A shearing apart weak trough across Washington State will provide   
   weak forcing for light snow for many of the passes over the   
   Cascades. Meanwhile, snow levels will drop to as low as   
   1,000-2,000ft through Sunday. For the most part, there will be a   
   lull in snowfall tonight and into Sunday. On Monday, another surge   
   of moisture will be supplied by a second strengthening 500mb   
   closed-low west of British Columbia, which will dive parallel to   
   the coast through Tuesday. Sharp height falls and excellent 500mb   
   PVA will be paired with an influx of 850-300mb mean-layer moisture   
   to produce periods of snow. Snow levels will plummet to as low as   
   800ft around the WA Cascades, while 2000 ft snow levels in the OR   
   Cascades will be more common. While these snow levels are getting   
   quite low, snowfall totals below 2,000ft in the WA/OR Cascades will   
   remain light. The heaviest snowfall will reside above 3,000ft   
   where 72-hour WPC probabilities remain in the moderate range   
   (40-60%) for snowfall totals >4" for both Snoqualmie Pass and   
   Stevens Pass. Given the long duration but lack of heavy hourly   
   rates, WSSI-P shows the chances for Minor Impacts are generally on   
   the low side (20-40%) with Monday having the best chances for some   
   slick travel conditions at pass level.   
      
      
   ...California...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   ...Multiple days of heavy and disruptive snowfall to affect the   
   California mountain ranges beginning Sunday and continuing into   
   next week...   
      
   A pair of potent Pacific storm systems will work together to direct   
   copious amounts of moisture at the mountain ranges of the "Golden   
   State" starting Sunday. A broad positively-tilted upper-level troughing   
   pattern off the Pacific NW coast will supply low-mid level   
   moisture that allows for light snow through tonight into the   
   higher terrain of the Siskiyou, Shasta, and Salmon Mountains. Snow   
   levels will gradually drop below 5,000 ft into these ranges, where   
   1-2 feet of new snow accumulation are possible at the higher   
   elevations through the day Sunday.   
      
   By Sunday night the upper low approaches, causing heights to fall   
   over CA and the strengthening IVT to direct subtropical moisture at   
   the state. Monday marks the beginning of heavy snowfall along the   
   Sierra Nevada with snow levels will generally ranging from 4,500ft   
   to 6,000ft from north to south initially, then fall below 3,000ft   
   across northern CA as the other potent Pacific trough approaches   
   from the northwest. In both cases, the state will be placed ahead   
   of a pair of 500mb jet streaks that will generate excellent upper-   
   level divergence aloft, along with a barrage of Pacific moisture   
   and strong topographically-enhanced snowfall rates. Heavy snowfall   
   is expected as far south as the Transverse Ranges above 6,000ft   
   with WPC probabilities showing low to moderate chances (30-50%) for   
   snowfall totals >8" in the peaks of the San Gabriel and San   
   Bernadino Mountains.   
      
   California's mountain ranges welcome the snow, although it will   
   come down fast and furious on Monday and continue into Tuesday.   
   Through the end of this discussion's timeframe (00Z Wed), multiple   
   feet of snow will have fallen above 6,000ft along the Sierra   
   Nevada. WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for >24" of snow   
   having fallen along the I-80 pass by 12Z Tuesday and more snow   
   still to come. The WSSI-P depicts a highly impactful snow event   
   along the Sierra Nevada with high chances (>70%) for Major Impacts   
   above 6,000ft, including the Donner Pass. In fact, for the higher   
   elevations above 8,000ft from Lake Tahoe south, the WSSI-P shows   
   high chances (>70%) for Extreme Impacts, suggesting the potential   
   for significant impacts to infrastructure. Travel will be dangerous   
   to impossible in the Sierra Nevada into Tuesday. Note that there   
   are also high chances (>70%) for Minor Impacts for I-5 around Mount   
   Shasta, signifying potential travel delays for I-5 in the more   
   elevated terrain of northern CA.   
      
   By Tuesday, another round of heavy snow is expected into all of the   
   ranges of central and northern California as a strong upper level   
   low dives south along the coast, locally enhancing onshore flow and   
   moisture levels on the leading (southern) edge of the low. Snow   
   levels will fall to around 2,000 ft in far northern California to   
   below 5,000 ft into the Transverse Ranges. Storm total snow amounts   
   will approach 3 feet into the Shasta and Siskiyou ranges, over 4   
   feet across much of the Sierra Nevada, and amounts over a foot even   
   into the highest elevations of the Transverse Ranges.   
      
      
   ...Intermountain West...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Pacific moisture ahead of the longwave upper trough off the West   
   Coast will spill over the Cascades and Sierra Nevada and reach many   
   ranges across the Intermountain West this weekend and into early   
   next week. With a lack of a frigid airmass ahead of this healthy   
   moisture source, snow will largely be confined to many of the   
   taller mountain peaks that sorely need beneficial snowpack. The   
   heaviest snowfall will reside in the Bitterroots, the Lewis Range,   
   Sawtooth, and the Blue Mountains where 72-hour WPC probabilities   
   show moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >8".   
   Localized amounts ranging between 12-24" are most likely to occur   
   along the remote reaches of the Lewis Range and peaks of the Blue   
   Mountains. Farther south, most accumulations in the Great Basin,   
   the Wasatch, Uinta, Mogollon Rim, and CO/NM Rockies will be on the   
   lighter side. The peaks around Zion Nat'l Park on north along the   
   Wasatch sport moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals   
   >4". Otherwise, most mountain ranges are likely to see 1-4" of   
   snowfall through Monday.   
      
   On Tuesday, a "bowling ball" low tracking south down the coast will   
   help guide upper level energy sweeping across the Southwest towards   
   the northern Plains. The energy between these two features will   
   lead to cyclogenesis across the northwestern Plains (northern   
   Wyoming and southeast Montana). The low and the upper wave over the   
   Southwest will cause widespread heavy snow at the higher elevations   
   of many of the mountains from Utah and Colorado north. 24-hour snow   
   totals are likely to exceed 6 inches from southern Utah and   
   southwest Colorado up through the Lewis Range in northwestern   
   Montana. While lower elevations will be either snow-free or only   
   pick up an inch or two, the mountains will likely upslope much   
   higher snow totals. WSSI-P values are high (>70%) for over 8   
   inches of snow into all of those ranges.   
      
   ...Northeast...   
   Day 2...   
      
   The beginning of phasing of two separate 500 mb troughs will drive   
   the potential for a period of light snow across portions of the   
   Mid-Atlantic Sunday night. A southern stream disturbance over the   
   Southeast Sunday evening will transfer its energy to an equally   
   fast-moving disturbance in the northern stream over eastern Ohio.   
   With the northern disturbance intensifying, this will lead to   
   healthier PVA aloft and more 250mb jet streak enhancement aloft.   
   While boundary layer temperatures along I-95 south of Philadelphia   
   remain quite marginal on Sunday, a corridor from west of   
   Philadelphia through the city and east to NYC and Long Island look   
   to have the best potential for light snow Sunday night. The   
   weakening trough in the Carolinas spawns low pressure over the NC   
   Outer Banks Sunday evening, allowing 850-700mb WAA to the north of   
   the low to support narrow banding of snow from eastern PA and   
   northern NJ to the NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal southern New   
   England. There remains notable spread in model guidance in the   
   position of this band, but trends in not only the GFS/ECMWF   
   guidance but also their AI counterparts are showing additional   
   support for a ribbon of light snow. WPC probabilities show low-to-   
   moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall totals >1" from the Delaware   
   and Lehigh Valleys on east to Long Island, but probabilities for   
   >2" of snowfall are <20%, showing that most totals are minor and   
   likely to range between a coating-2".   
      
   The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
      
   Wegman/Mullinax   
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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