TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169520.weather@1:2320/105 2df89377   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS30 KWBC 141904   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   204 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTHEAST   
   TEXAS TO THE MID-SOUTH...   
      
   1600Z Update...   
      
   Based on the new 12Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR solutions along   
   with satellite and radar trends, the Slight Risk area has been   
   pulled southward a bit into northeast TX, mainly from the DFW metro   
   area eastward to the Arklatex. This will accommodate concerns for   
   at least some brief/episodic convective training concerns as   
   convection grows upscale in an organized fashion out ahead of   
   strong shortwave energy/height falls ejecting east across the   
   southern Plains and Lower MS Vallety region. Increasing boundary   
   layer instability and a strengthening of thew low-level jet should   
   favor increasing rainfall rates capable of reaching 1 to 2   
   inches/hour, and with some training potential. Localized swaths of   
   3 to 4+ inches may occur. Since we are likely to have basically a   
   QLCS evolution going into tonight across the South, the Marginl   
   Risk area has also been extended southward to the Gulf Coast.   
   Overall, most areas should see any flash flooding concerns be   
   isolated to scattered, and mainly for urban areas.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   Previous discussion...   
      
   A positively tilted upper trough will pivot across the Southern   
   Plains, while a low pressure system develops at the surface today.   
   Mid-level diffluence will shed lobes of vorticity over parts of   
   the Southern/Central Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley,   
   providing ample forcing for convection to develop. Thus, showers   
   and thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage this afternoon   
   starting over north-central Texas, into central Oklahoma and   
   spreading eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The   
   associated surface wave should strengthen into a rather anomalous   
   mid-latitude cyclone by tonight, which is when a line of convection   
   may initiate over east Texas and begin to propagate east across   
   the central Gulf Coast.   
      
   Instability will be most robust (250-750 J/Kg) over east Texas,   
   southern Arkansas and Louisiana through tonight. 1-2" PWATs will be   
   2-3 stndv above average and could produce 0.25"-0.75"/hr rates   
   with higher rates possible within linear convective bands moving   
   through east Texas and within any potential training/backbuilding   
   convection that occurs along a surface front draped over Arkansas.   
   Guidance is hinting at potential for slow moving cells to generate   
   an isolated flash flood threat over portions of Missouri this   
   afternoon.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST, AND   
   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...21Z Outlook Update...   
      
   The ongoing outlook is generally on track although a few changes   
   were made across Tennessee/Kentucky and across central California   
   coastal areas. At the beginning of the period, a deformation zone   
   should set up pretty close to the Kentucky/Tennessee border region   
   and spread a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rainfall across   
   those areas. 1-2.5 inches of total rainfall is expected from 12Z   
   Sun through 00Z Mon. These rainfall totals should gradually create   
   sensitive ground conditions and result in at least minor runoff   
   issues in a few spots. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward   
   into southern Kentucky and middle Tennessee as a result.   
      
   Across California, models depict a frontal band of convection   
   developing over the central CA coast before gradually shifting   
   southward during the 00Z-12Z Monday timeframe. Areas of 0.5-1.5   
   inch rainfall totals are expected, and these totals could fall in   
   1) a short amount of time and 2) across urban/sensitive ground   
   conditions. Areas of flash flooding could result.   
      
   The remainder of the outlook is on track with no changes needed.   
   See the previous outlook below for more details.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Previous discussion...   
      
   The marginal risk area from yesterday's issuance remains mostly   
   the same, with the only change being an expansion northward in   
   Virginia. The potent low pressure system that will bring heavy   
   rainfall to the Lower Mississippi Valley today will continue to   
   spread moderate to heavy rainfall over parts of the Southeast and   
   Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur   
   Sunday afternoon into evening in the Southeast, along the same   
   cold front responsible for potential linear convection over the   
   central Gulf Coast today.   
      
   MLCAPE will be modest at around 250-500 J/Kg, while PWATs hover   
   between 1-1.75" over the Southeast. Phasing of this southern stream   
   system with a northern stream one emerging from the Ohio Valley   
   could enhance precip. coverage over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon   
   into tonight.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...21Z Outlook Update...   
   The ongoing forecast is on track. Convection should organize along   
   a surface front and gradually shift southward across central and   
   southern California coastal ranges. Favorable low- to mid-level   
   trajectories exist for substantial upslope/orographic ascent and   
   local areas of 1.5-3 inch rainfall totals. These rainfall rates are   
   likely to occur over sensitive areas and varied terrain, resulting   
   in instances of flash flooding. A Slight Risk area remains in place   
   to address the threat.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   A slight risk was introduced, in coordination with local offices,   
   across parts of the central and southern California Coast. A closed   
   mid-level low will weaken while shedding lobes of vorticity over   
   the West Coast on Monday. An upper-level jet streak (100-140 kts)   
   will gradually increase in intensity throughout the day as it sags   
   south from central to southern California. A surface wave will   
   develop and spread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms into the   
   central to southern coastal ranges below 6500-5000ft Monday   
   morning and into the early evening.   
      
   PWATs in the 0.5"-0.9" range within a relatively buoyant   
   atmosphere (100-200 J/Kg) and a 30-40 kt low level jet, could   
   support efficient rain rates especially within any convection that   
   develops. Burn scars will be especially susceptible to flash   
   flooding.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-kmuRvEfxHvS5eGyvWAYZnznR_Pl1HgLCRIeJj5usbg1=   
   okHqeJf8IkWubrLY1yGSL1bF3HCKS-37zoPu4zFoZKPv-Vk$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-kmuRvEfxHvS5eGyvWAYZnznR_Pl1HgLCRIeJj5usbg1=   
   okHqeJf8IkWubrLY1yGSL1bF3HCKS-37zoPu4zFoqNa67QQ$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-kmuRvEfxHvS5eGyvWAYZnznR_Pl1HgLCRIeJj5usbg1=   
   okHqeJf8IkWubrLY1yGSL1bF3HCKS-37zoPu4zFoTqJrZI0$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/20 70 90   
   SEEN-BY: 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 20 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206   
   SEEN-BY: 229/300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512 267/800   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45   
   SEEN-BY: 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220 230   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426