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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0019   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1235 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Northeast TX into the Arklatex   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 141735Z - 142335Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Increasingly organized areas of heavy showers and   
   thunderstorms with some localized cell-training concerns may   
   foster isolated to scattered areas of mainly urban flash flooding   
   going through the afternoon hours.   
      
   DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a strong southern   
   stream shortwave trough ejecting east across the southern Plains   
   which is interacting with a moist and modestly unstable airmass   
   downstream across much of eastern TX.   
      
   Strong forcing aloft with DPVA and a gradually increasing   
   south-southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts ahead of a cold   
   front is facilitating a fairly expansive area of heavy showers and   
   thunderstorms across central and northern TX and into the Red Red   
   Valley.   
      
   Recent radar trends has been showing a gradual increase in   
   convective organization with the activity near the DFW   
   metropolitan area, but with a generally progressive movement off   
   to the east and northeast as the shortwave dynamics interact with   
   the modestly favorable thermodynamic environment.   
      
   MUCAPE values are generally only on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg   
   with PWs upwards of 1.5 inches. However, some uptick in these   
   parameters can be expected over the next few hours as the   
   low-level jet reaches 40 to 50+ kts and PWs increase locally to   
   near 1.75 inches. This should help favor rainfall rates well into   
   the 1 to 2 inch/hour range with the stronger and more organized   
   cells which are being aided by much as 30 to 50 kts of effective   
   bulk shear.   
      
   Upscale convective growth is expected with at least the early   
   stages of a QLCS evolution likely going through the mid-afternoon   
   hours. The northern end of this convective mass will tend to focus   
   across northeast TX and into the Arklatex region where there will   
   be some localized cell-training concerns. A more progressive   
   convective line is expected farther south. The 12Z HREF guidance   
   suggests potential for some localized 3 to 4+ inch totals by later   
   this afternoon around the Arklatex.   
      
   The antecedent conditions are notably dry, but given the   
   increasing rates and cell-training concerns, some isolated to   
   scattered areas of mainly urban flash flooding will be possible.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!5OUdtSYdwrifFZh_oEhT4OdhjIrhD4SEk6mtJ91CiUWM6k2tdiTTWeHidzgbtHRVgux2=   
   uP243a-rpWdt2NZVMiTqjwg$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34549428 34299311 33509314 32719423 32119559=20   
               32029649 32239723 32699745 33319705 34129585=20   
   =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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