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   ACUS02 KWNS 141726   
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   SPC AC 141724   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1124 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON   
   AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN   
   GEORGIA....   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of northern   
   Florida and adjacent southern Georgia, accompanied by a risk for   
   damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes, including potential   
   for a strong tornado or two.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   On Sunday, a mid-level trough moving across the Southeast will merge   
   with an additional trough moving from the Great Lakes to the   
   Northeast. In the wake of this trough, mid-level ridging will build   
   across the central CONUS. A surface low associated with the   
   mid-level trough traversing the Southeast will gradually weaken   
   through the day before deepening somewhat Sunday night in the   
   western Atlantic as the larger-scale trough merges.   
      
   ...Southeast...   
   A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the   
   period across eastern Mississippi/western Alabama. Weak instability   
   is forecast ahead of this line with low 60s dewpoints. Strong   
   low-level shear may support embedded rotation/tornado potential   
   where the greater (250 J/kg+) MLCAPE exists. 12Z CAM guidance shows   
   varying storm mode solutions, with some indication of the line   
   becoming more broken through the morning while other guidance keeps   
   it more organized. Given the ascent ahead of the mid-level trough   
   and a persistent 40-50 knot low-level jet, expect the line to remain   
   more organized Sunday morning and through the afternoon. Damaging   
   wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary threat along this   
   line. A strong tornado is possible across southern Georgia and   
   northern Florida Sunday afternoon where the greatest instability and   
   strong low-level jet overlap.   
      
   12Z guidance shows some low 60s dewpoints into southern South   
   Carolina. Therefore, given at least some weak instability in the   
   forecast soundings, have expanded the marginal risk into southern   
   North Carolina for the conditional tornado/damaging wind threat   
   Sunday morning through the afternoon.   
      
   Additional thunderstorms may develop beneath the mid-level cold pool   
   Sunday afternoon from eastern Alabama into central Georgia as MLCAPE   
   around 500 to 750 J/kg develops. However, shear will be weak by this   
   time. Therefore, some small hail may occur with this activity, but   
   no severe weather is anticipated with these thunderstorms.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 02/14/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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