TZUTC: 0000   
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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 141649   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 141649=20   
   TXZ000-141845-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0074   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1049 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of south-central into north TX   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 141649Z - 141845Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop into the early   
   afternoon. Short-term watch issuance is considered unlikely.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from   
   south-central into north TX, in advance of a vigorous   
   mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the southern High   
   Plains. Outflow associated with this band of storms has shown some   
   acceleration this morning, which will result in eastward progression   
   of the ongoing storms through early afternoon. Despite the presence   
   of strong deep-layer shear, convection has remained relatively   
   disorganized thus far, due to rather weak buoyancy and the   
   undercutting influence of the outflow.=20   
      
   With time, increasing ascent associated with the approaching   
   shortwave trough and gradually improving buoyancy (with MLCAPE   
   gradually increasing through the 500-1000 J/kg range) may allow for   
   some strengthening and increased organization into early afternoon.   
   Isolated supercells and/or bowing segments could evolve with time,   
   posing at least a localized threat for severe hail and wind. The   
   undercutting outflow may continue to limit the magnitude and   
   coverage in the short term, and watch issuance is considered   
   unlikely through early afternoon.=20   
      
   An increase in the severe threat is still expected later in the   
   afternoon, as storms begin to approach east TX. Parts of   
   south-central TX (near the southern periphery of ongoing convection)   
   will continue to be monitored for isolated supercell development   
   within a somewhat more unstable environment.   
      
   ..Dean/Gleason.. 02/14/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4HanB0PmyFtFpLZ30JuLfyadnL7Il1OVmjfM6JEGZFugPsjR5bAbXIGUISRYBNAhxdeGJizH3=   
   m_r7YPIX0De_OcpqvM$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...   
      
   LAT...LON   29630151 31069870 32109833 33539685 33589641 33539615   
               33369555 32649570 30779714 29809795 29269864 29099986   
               29100077 29630151=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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