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   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1100 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTHEAST=20   
   TEXAS TO THE MID-SOUTH...   
      
   1600Z Update...   
      
   Based on the new 12Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR solutions along   
   with satellite and radar trends, the Slight Risk area has been   
   pulled southward a bit into northeast TX, mainly from the DFW metro   
   area eastward to the Arklatex. This will accommodate concerns for   
   at least some brief/episodic convective training concerns as   
   convection grows upscale in an organized fashion out ahead of   
   strong shortwave energy/height falls ejecting east across the   
   southern Plains and Lower MS Vallety region. Increasing boundary   
   layer instability and a strengthening of thew low-level jet should   
   favor increasing rainfall rates capable of reaching 1 to 2   
   inches/hour, and with some training potential. Localized swaths of   
   3 to 4+ inches may occur. Since we are likely to have basically a   
   QLCS evolution going into tonight across the South, the Marginl   
   Risk area has also been extended southward to the Gulf Coast.   
   Overall, most areas should see any flash flooding concerns be   
   isolated to scattered, and mainly for urban areas.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   Previous discussion...   
      
   A positively tilted upper trough will pivot across the Southern   
   Plains, while a low pressure system develops at the surface today.   
   Mid-level diffluence will shed lobes of vorticity over parts of   
   the Southern/Central Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley,   
   providing ample forcing for convection to develop. Thus, showers   
   and thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage this afternoon   
   starting over north-central Texas, into central Oklahoma and   
   spreading eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The   
   associated surface wave should strengthen into a rather anomalous   
   mid-latitude cyclone by tonight, which is when a line of convection   
   may initiate over east Texas and begin to propagate east across   
   the central Gulf Coast.   
      
   Instability will be most robust (250-750 J/Kg) over east Texas,   
   southern Arkansas and Louisiana through tonight. 1-2" PWATs will be   
   2-3 stndv above average and could produce 0.25"-0.75"/hr rates   
   with higher rates possible within linear convective bands moving   
   through east Texas and within any potential training/backbuilding   
   convection that occurs along a surface front draped over Arkansas.   
   Guidance is hinting at potential for slow moving cells to generate   
   an isolated flash flood threat over portions of Missouri this   
   afternoon.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...   
      
   The marginal risk area from yesterday's issuance remains mostly   
   the same, with the only change being an expansion northward in   
   Virginia. The potent low pressure system that will bring heavy   
   rainfall to the Lower Mississippi Valley today will continue to   
   spread moderate to heavy rainfall over parts of the Southeast and   
   Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur   
   Sunday afternoon into evening in the Southeast, along the same   
   cold front responsible for potential linear convection over the   
   central Gulf Coast today.   
      
   MLCAPE will be modest at around 250-500 J/Kg, while PWATs hover   
   between 1-1.75" over the Southeast. Phasing of this southern stream   
   system with a northern stream one emerging from the Ohio Valley   
   could enhance precip. coverage over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon   
   into tonight.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   A slight risk was introduced, in coordination with local offices,   
   across parts of the central and southern California Coast. A closed   
   mid-level low will weaken while shedding lobes of vorticity over   
   the West Coast on Monday. An upper-level jet streak (100-140 kts)   
   will gradually increase in intensity throughout the day as it sags   
   south from central to southern California. A surface wave will   
   develop and spread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms into the   
   central to southern coastal ranges below 6500-5000ft Monday   
   morning and into the early evening.   
      
   PWATs in the 0.5"-0.9" range within a relatively buoyant   
   atmosphere (100-200 J/Kg) and a 30-40 kt low level jet, could   
   support efficient rain rates especially within any convection that   
   develops. Burn scars will be especially susceptible to flash   
   flooding.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!837QUOfofbqrIZPjwQ8sGhbWnN9bgoduOf95ZM00QJuh=   
   XXcuxMCFAD_oEjmWQM3OE_Mi1VSei7BIRI8nY7bbt8mJjIo$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!837QUOfofbqrIZPjwQ8sGhbWnN9bgoduOf95ZM00QJuh=   
   XXcuxMCFAD_oEjmWQM3OE_Mi1VSei7BIRI8nY7bbIriBc3k$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!837QUOfofbqrIZPjwQ8sGhbWnN9bgoduOf95ZM00QJuh=   
   XXcuxMCFAD_oEjmWQM3OE_Mi1VSei7BIRI8nY7bbCx3wN_M$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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