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   ACUS01 KWNS 141258   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 141256   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0656 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Valid 141300Z - 151200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN TEXAS INTO   
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower   
   Mississippi Valley. The most likely time frame is this evening to   
   tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur   
   across east Texas to southern Mississippi.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a gradually deepening   
   upper wave in place along the southern High Plains into northern   
   Mexico with a pronounced vorticity maximum approaching the upper Rio   
   Grande Valley. Latest upper-air analyses show increasing cold   
   advection across the southern High Plains, which will contribute to   
   the intensification and eastward progression of the wave through   
   tonight. At the surface, seasonally high dewpoints (low to mid-60s)   
   continue to spread north across central/eastern TX to the south of a   
   warm frontal zone analyzed from northwest OK to the lower MS Valley.   
   Continued low-level warm advection and increasing ascent aloft will   
   promote steady deepening/organization of the surface cyclone as it   
   shifts southeast towards southern AR/northern LA by tonight. A   
   frontogenetic Pacific cold front attendant to the cyclone will   
   promote thunderstorm development across central to eastern TX this   
   afternoon and into LA and southern MS overnight.   
      
   ...Eastern Texas to Southwest Mississippi...   
   Ongoing elevated convection will continue to spread east/northeast   
   through late morning, supported by steady isentropic ascent within   
   the warm frontal zone and over residual cold pools from prior   
   overnight convection. With time, this activity will become   
   increasingly near-surface based as MLCAPE increases to around 1000   
   J/kg across eastern TX amid continued moisture return and filtered   
   daytime heating. Focused forcing along the front and strong height   
   falls aloft will promote upscale growth of initially semi-discrete   
   cells and clusters into an organized line by early evening. The   
   potential for severe gusts and embedded tornadic circulations should   
   increase as this occurs - especially between 00-04 UTC across far   
   east TX into central LA as the mid-level jet attendant to the upper   
   wave ejects eastward along the Gulf Coast and promotes a rapid   
   eastward surge of the front.   
      
   ...Far Southwest Oklahoma into Central Texas...   
   Gradual clearing is anticipated through the day in the wake of   
   morning showers and thunderstorms across central TX into southwest   
   OK. Despite modest low-level moisture behind the primary surface   
   front, cold temperatures aloft under the upper trough coupled with   
   daytime heating should promote lifted indices on the order of -5 to   
   -6 C within a largely uncapped environment. Weak ascent under/behind   
   the upper trough will support mainly isolated convective   
   showers/thunderstorms, but 30 knot mid-level flow may be sufficient   
   for a few organized cells capable of producing large hail this   
   afternoon.   
      
   ..Moore/Smith.. 02/14/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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