TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169505.weather@1:2320/105 2df81447   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS48 KWNS 141001   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 141000   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Valid 171200Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability   
   concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the   
   mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream   
   developments inland and across North America, through this period.   
   Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant   
   perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be   
   accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the   
   mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley,   
   before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday.  This will be   
   accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear,   
   conditionally supportive of organized convective development given   
   sufficient destabilization.  However, there has been little change   
   from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an   
   initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great   
   Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture   
   return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle   
   of next week.   
      
   Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic   
   southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend   
   across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid   
   Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent   
   subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean   
   vicinity.  It is possible that a short wave embedded within this   
   regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf   
   boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return   
   flow.  This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in   
   potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and   
   consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range   
   guidance.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/14/2026   
      
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