TZUTC: 0000   
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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 140957   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 140957=20   
   TXZ000-141200-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0073   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0357 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Western to central Texas   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 140957Z - 141200Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A corridor favorable for weak supercells may persist   
   across portions of western to central Texas through 6 AM CST. Watch   
   issuance is not expected.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Intensification of maturing supercells is noted in   
   recent MRMS and GOES imagery to the north and west of the San   
   Angelo, TX area. These cells are becoming established within a   
   somewhat narrow mesoscale corridor where low-level warm/moist   
   advection is overriding cold pools established by prior   
   precipitation/convection, which is maintaining MUCAPE values between   
   approximately 500-1000 J/kg. Persistent deep-layer ascent within the   
   warm air advection regime and ahead of the approaching upper wave,   
   coupled with strong flow aloft (60-70 knots between 6-8 km per the   
   KSJT VWP), should maintain a corridor favorable for supercell   
   development. Based on recent MRMS estimates, these cells should be   
   capable of producing severe hail (most likely up to 1.5 inches in   
   diameter) and isolated strong to severe gusts. Undulation in the   
   vertically integrated ice fields associated with the deeper   
   convective cores casts some uncertainty onto the longevity of any   
   individual cells, but this favorable mesoscale corridor may persist   
   across the region through roughly 6 AM CST.   
      
   ..Moore/Smith.. 02/14/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9ZvAWD34yUdRD4z_SrxiQz3tMspYI9jd1yalu6G0g17MYqA9jTe7mvvDMxAJL787ANWmobo3e=   
   Gi-HXMw3o5Ky9dER2Y$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...   
      
   LAT...LON   31450194 31680194 31870173 32989934 33089896 33019864   
               32809846 32539833 32289828 32029825 31819829 31689839   
               31080102 31040146 31210179 31450194=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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