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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0018   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   412 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Areas affected...portions of northern TX & southern OK   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 140912Z - 141512Z   
      
   Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to invigorate and   
   solidify into a slowly progressive line this morning.  Hourly rain   
   amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" remain possible, which could   
   lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flood concerns.   
      
   Discussion...Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level   
   trough from CO south-southwest into northwest Mexico with two   
   centers -- a weakening center lifting across southern CO and a   
   more potent center moving just south of the NM/AZ border junction   
   with Mexico.  Difluence aloft remains downstream across the   
   Southern Plains/TX; new convection is forming southeast of Midland   
   at this time.  Precipitable water values are 1-1.3" per GPS data.=20   
   Gulf inflow continues to be best channeled up the Lower Rio Grande   
   Basin then upward across west-central TX towards southwest OK.=20   
   After initially dropping off after the evening convection, MU CAPE   
   is back on the rise across west-central TX, in the range of   
   500-1500 J/kg.  Effective bulk shear is 50-75 kts regionally.  The   
   flow remains fairly unidirectional with height out of the   
   southwest.   
      
   The expectation is for a broad convective uptick into the late   
   morning across portions of west-central and northern TX into   
   southern OK as the mid-level low across far northwest Mexico   
   approaches, which could back the mean winds somewhat more out of   
   the south-southwest initially, possibly holding up convection for   
   a short time.  Once the line solidifies, convection should show   
   some progression.  The main concern from a heavy rainfall   
   perspective is the possibility of embedded mesocyclones holding up   
   segments of the line for an hour or two, leading to locally heavy   
   rain that would locally exceed the three hour flash flood guidance   
   (~2.5").  Issues would also be possible in urban areas.  Flash   
   flood issues could be isolated to widely scattered in nature.   
      
   Roth   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!_jNl3xZkw7WJLJXqFtOzbQ20pOidvGgFDz9eSsEuouRQhfO8muctXC1-uFwKLrvrwlK2=   
   pUIXVs6oTQ4iMBdU9Gi0tIs$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   35269728 34219634 31949880 30340135 29700289=20   
               30420352 31310324 32770109 34519946=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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