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   FOUS11 KWBC 140832   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   332 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
      
   ...Cascades...   
   Days 1 & 3...   
      
   A broad upper-level troughing pattern off the Pacific NW coast   
   will continue to supply lingering low-mid level moisture that   
   allows for light snow through this morning. Snow levels will drop   
   to as low as 2000-3000ft today and into Saturday evening, bringing   
   snow to many of the passes over the WA Cascades. Following a lull   
   in snowfall Saturday night and into Sunday, another surge of   
   moisture will be supplied by a strengthening 500mb closed-low west   
   of British Columbia. Sharp height falls and excellent 500mb PVA   
   will be paired with an influx of 850-300mb mean-layer moisture to   
   produce periods of snow. Snow levels will plummet to as low as   
   800ft around the WA Cascades, while 2000 ft snow levels in the OR   
   Cascades will be more common. While these snow levels are getting   
   quite low, snowfall totals below 2,000ft in the WA/OR Cascades will   
   remain light. The heaviest snowfall will reside above 3,000ft   
   72-hour WPC probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for   
   snowfall totals >4" for both Snoqualmie Pass and Stevens Pass.   
   Given the long duration but lack of heavy hourly rates, WSSI-P   
   shows the chances for Minor Impacts are generally on the low side   
   (20-40%) with Monday having the best chances for some slick travel   
   conditions at pass level.   
      
      
   ...California...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   ...Multiple days of heavy and disruptive snowfall to affect the   
   California mountain ranges beginning Sunday and continuing into   
   next week...   
      
   A pair of potent Pacific storm systems will work together to direct   
   copious amounts of moisture at the mountain ranges of the "Golden   
   State" starting Sunday. The first upper low west of California will   
   kickoff this multi-day heavy snow event on Sunday with snow falling   
   in the higher terrain of the Siskiyou, Shasta, and Salmon   
   Mountains. By Sunday night the upper low approaches, causing   
   heights to fall over CA and the strengthening IVT to direct   
   subtropical moisture at the state. Monday marks the beginning of   
   heavy snowfall along the Sierra Nevada with snow levels will   
   generally ranging from 4500ft to 6000ft from north to south   
   initially, then fall below 3000ft across northern CA as the other   
   potent Pacific trough approaches from the northwest. In both cases,   
   the state will be placed ahead of a pair of 500mb jet streaks that   
   will generate excellent upper-level divergence aloft, along with a   
   barrage of Pacific moisture and strong topographically-enhanced   
   snowfall rates. Heavy snowfall is expected as far south as the   
   Transverse Ranges above 6,000ft with WPC probabilities showing   
   moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall totals >8" in the peaks of   
   the San Gabriel and San Bernadino Mountains.   
      
   California's mountain ranges welcome the snow, although it will   
   come down fast and furious on Monday and continue into Tuesday.   
   Through the end of this discussion's timeframe (12Z Tues), multiple   
   feet of snow will have fallen above 6,000ft along the Sierra   
   Nevada. WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for >24" of   
   snow having fallen along the I-80 pass by 12Z Tuesday and more snow   
   still to come. The WSSI-P depicts a highly impactful snow event   
   along the Sierra Nevada with high chances (>70%) for Major Impacts   
   above 6,00ft, including the I-80 pass. In fact, for the higher   
   elevations above 8,000ft, the WSSI-P shows moderate chances (>50%)   
   for Extreme Impacts, suggesting the potential for significant   
   impacts to infrastructure. Travel will be dangerous to impossible   
   in the Sierra Nevada into Tuesday. Note that there are also high   
   chances (>70%) for Minor Impacts for I-5 around Mount Shasta,   
   signifying potential travel delays for I-5 in the more elevated   
   terrain of northern CA.   
      
      
   ...Intermountain West...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Pacific moisture ahead of the longwave upper trough off the West   
   Coast will spill over the Cascades and Sierra Nevada and reach many   
   ranges across the Intermountain West this weekend and into early   
   next week. With a lack of a frigid airmass ahead of this healthy   
   moisture source, snow will largely be confined to many of the   
   taller mountain peaks that sorely need beneficial snowpack. The   
   heaviest snowfall will reside in the Bitterroots, the Lewis Range,   
   Sawtooth, and the Blue Mountains whee 72-hour WPC probabilities   
   show moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >8".   
   Localized amounts ranging between 12-24" are most likely to occur   
   along the remote reaches of the Lewis Range and peaks of the Blue   
   Mountains. Farther south, most accumulations in the Great Basin,   
   the Wasatch, Uinta, Mogollon Rim, and CO/NM Rockies will be on the   
   lighter side. The peaks around Zion Nat'l Park on north along the   
   Wasatch sport moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals   
   >4". Otherwise, most mountain ranges are likely to see 1-4" of   
   snowfall, with additional snowfall still to come on Tuesday.   
      
      
   ...Northeast...   
   Day 2...   
      
   The last 24 hours have seen some model guidance (GFS/ECMWF)   
   gradually creep north with the precipitation shield. This is due to   
   the approaching 500mb shortwave over western PA coming in   
   stronger, thus leading to healthier PVA aloft and more 250mb jet   
   streak enhancement aloft. While boundary layer temperatures along   
   I-95 south of Philadelphia remain quite marginal on Sunday,   
   elevated terrain north and west of the Delaware River are likely to   
   have better chances to see wet snow Sunday afternoon. As the upper   
   trough in the Carolinas spawns low pressure over the NC Outer   
   Banks Sunday evening, 850-700mb WAA to the north of the low will   
   support narrow banding of snow from eastern PA and northern NJ to   
   the NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal southern New England. There   
   remains notable spread in model guidance in the position of this   
   band, but trends in not only the GFS/ECMWF guidance but also their   
   AI counterparts are showing additional support for a ribbon of   
   light snow. WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%)   
   for snowfall totals >1" from the Delaware and Lehigh Valleys on   
   east to Long Island, but probabilities for >2" of snowfall are   
   <20%, showing that most totals are minor and likely to range   
   between a coating-2". There is the potential for additional   
   changes to this forecast in the next 12-24 hours.   
      
      
   The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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