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   FOUS30 KWBC 140830   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   330 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE ARKLATEX   
   TO THE MID-SOUTH...   
      
   An upper trough will pivot across the Southern Plains, while a low   
   pressure system develops at the surface today. Mid-level diffluence   
   will shed lobes of vorticity out over parts of the=20   
   Southern/Central Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley   
   providing ample forcing for convection to develop. Thus, showers   
   and thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage this afternoon   
   starting over north-central Texas into central Oklahoma and   
   spreading eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The   
   associated surface wave should strengthen into a rather anomalous   
   mid-latitude cyclone by tonight, which is when a line of convection   
   may initiate over east Texas and begin to propagate east across the   
   central Gulf Coast.   
      
   Instability will be most robust (250-750 J/Kg) over east Texas,=20   
   southern Arkansas and Louisiana through tonight. 1-2" PWATs will be   
   2-3 stndv above average and could produce 0.25"-0.75"/hr rates=20   
   with higher rates possible within linear convective bands moving   
   through east Texas and within any potential training/backbuilding   
   convection that occurs along a surface front draped over Arkansas.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...   
      
   The marginal risk area from yesterday's issuance remains mostly   
   the same, with the only change being an expansion northward in   
   Virginia. The potent low pressure system that will bring heavy=20   
   rainfall to the Lower Mississippi Valley today will continue to=20   
   spread moderate to heavy rainfall over parts of the Southeast and=20   
   Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur   
   Sunday afternoon into evening in the Southeast, along the same=20   
   cold front responsible for potential linear convection over the=20   
   central Gulf Coast today.   
      
   MLCAPE will be modest at around 250-500 J/Kg, while PWATs hover   
   between 1-1.75" over the Southeast. Phasing of this southern stream   
   system with a northern stream one emerging from the Ohio Valley   
   could enhance precip. coverage over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon   
   into tonight.   
      
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   A slight risk was introduced, in coordination with local offices,   
   across parts of the central and southern California Coast. A closed   
   mid-level low will weaken while shedding lobes of vorticity over   
   the West Coast on Monday. An upper-level jet streak (100-140 kts)=20   
   will gradually increase in intensity throughout the day right over   
   central and southern California. A surface wave will develop and   
   spread showers and isolated thunderstorms into the coastal ranges=20   
   Monday morning and into the early evening.   
      
   PWATs in the 0.5"-0.9" range within a relatively buoyant=20   
   atmosphere (100-200 J/Kg) and a 30-40 kt low level jet, could=20   
   support efficient rain rates especially within any convection that=20   
   develops.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9t5sPxYspM2X_mZCjf1Z9fyQWtM_ZCT0k_swv0wmg8Wu=   
   hg9maA8vuvc1xVuzXTFY7sDa3JbPk8BRzuXDisASBL_W-NI$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9t5sPxYspM2X_mZCjf1Z9fyQWtM_ZCT0k_swv0wmg8Wu=   
   hg9maA8vuvc1xVuzXTFY7sDa3JbPk8BRzuXDisAS9DP7lrk$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9t5sPxYspM2X_mZCjf1Z9fyQWtM_ZCT0k_swv0wmg8Wu=   
   hg9maA8vuvc1xVuzXTFY7sDa3JbPk8BRzuXDisAS7jFKk8U$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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