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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 140824   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 140824   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0224 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF   
   SOUTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas   
   south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin Monday,   
   accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and   
   perhaps a couple of tornadoes.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the   
   southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), models   
   indicate that a vigorous short wave perturbation will undergo   
   further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia   
   and Pacific Northwest coast during this period.  It appears that   
   this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and   
   force an initially significant downstream trough inland across   
   California and much of the Great Basin, into the northern Rockies   
   Monday night.  As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also   
   forecast to develop inland, centered near the northern Rockies   
   through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday.   
      
   Guidance indicates that the lead perturbation will be accompanied by   
   an intense mid/upper jet (including a 100-110+ kt maximum around 500   
   mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four   
   Corners.  Forcing associated with this feature may be supporting   
   modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the   
   beginning of the period.  The low may deepen a bit further while   
   occluding and migrating inland south of the San Francisco Bay   
   vicinity during the day Monday.   
      
   ...Southern California coast...   
   It appears that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead   
   of the front trailing the occluding surface low, will gradually   
   contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening   
   convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas   
   south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps   
   beginning as early as late Monday morning.  Aided by mid/upper   
   forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling, NAM forecast   
   soundings suggest thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of   
   thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer   
   shear.  Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the   
   850 mb level, with sizable low-level hodographs developing, aided by   
   orography, south of the western Transverse Ranges into the Los   
   Angeles Basin, potentially contributing to an environment conducive   
   to supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to   
   potentially damaging wind gusts.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/14/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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