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   ACUS02 KWNS 140557   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 140555   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1155 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON   
   AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late Sunday afternoon into   
   early evening across parts of northern Florida and adjacent southern   
   Georgia, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple   
   of tornadoes, including potential for a strong tornado or two.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Within the prevailing split flow across the Pacific, it still   
   appears that a prominent blocking ridge centered over the   
   mid-latitude Pacific (near 160W) may undergo further amplification   
   toward the higher latitudes, across and north-northwest of the   
   Aleutians in mid/upper levels through this period.  As   
   this occurs, and a vigorous downstream short wave trough digs   
   near/offshore of the British Columbia coast, a significant mid-level   
   trough initially over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific is   
   forecast to slowly accelerate toward the California/Baja coast.  It   
   appears that a shorter wavelength perturbation pivoting through the   
   base of this feature will support modest renewed surface   
   cyclogenesis, but this is generally forecast to occur and remain   
   offshore of central and southern California coastal areas through   
   12Z Monday, as an initial occluding cyclone weakens to the north and   
   northwest.   
      
   Downstream, it appears that flow across the Rockies into the   
   western Atlantic may trend more zonal, with short wave developments   
   within the converging branches of westerlies remaining out of phase.   
   In the southern branch, mid-level ridging is forecast to broaden   
   eastward across the southern Rockies through lower Mississippi   
   Valley, in the wake of mid-level short wave troughing progressing   
   into and across much of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by late   
   Sunday night.   
      
   Spread persists within/among the various model output concerning   
   this troughing.  In general, guidance suggests that an embedded   
   mid-level cyclonic circulation and associated surface cyclone will   
   tend to weaken by the time it progresses offshore by late Sunday   
   night.  However, at least some guidance, including the NAM and Rapid   
   Refresh, appear to maintain a stronger mid-level perturbation across   
   the eastern Gulf Coast states through the day Sunday.   
      
   ...Eastern Gulf States...   
   Questions remain concerning the extent to which thermodynamic   
   profiles may be conducive to continuing severe weather potential, in   
   association with an initial line of convection which may be in the   
   process of spreading into Alabama and offshore of the southeastern   
   Louisiana coast at the outset of the period.  Moist adiabatic or   
   more stable near surface lapse rates and weak CAPE, particularly   
   inland of coastal areas, still seem likely to limit the risk for   
   severe hail, damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes at least into   
   early afternoon, as activity progresses eastward.   
      
   Through mid to late afternoon, it is appearing increasingly probable   
   that a belt of 40-50+ kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in   
   the 850-700 mb layer will overspread the northern Florida/southern   
   Georgia vicinity.  As this occurs, forecast soundings from the   
   latest Rapid Refresh and NAM suggest that this may be accompanied by   
   rapidly moistening and destabilizing thermodynamic profiles rooted   
   within the boundary layer, coincident with low-level hodographs   
   becoming rather large and clockwise curved, in the presence of   
   strong deep-layer shear.  It appears that this environment may   
   contribute to a re-intensification of the convective line, with   
   embedded supercells and perhaps preceded by discrete supercell   
   development.  As this activity tends to propagate eastward toward   
   the coast into early evening, it may be accompanied by damaging wind   
   gusts and a risk for tornadoes, including potential for a strong   
   tornado or two.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/14/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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