TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169495.weather@1:2320/105 2df7d63b   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 140537   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 140535   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1135 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE   
   LOWER MS VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower   
   Mississippi Valley. This most likely time frame is this evening to   
   tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur   
   across east Texas to southern Mississippi.   
      
   ...Southern Great Plains to the Lower MS Valley...   
   Slightly elevated storms should be ongoing at 12Z across parts of   
   west/western north TX and southern OK. This activity will probably   
   remain sub-severe through the morning, but a brief marginally severe   
   hail/wind event is plausible within a strongly sheared but weakly   
   buoyant environment. Some of this convection may intensify into the   
   afternoon as downstream destabilization occurs, along with evolution   
   into a loosely organized QLCS. CAM guidance remains rather varied   
   regarding the coverage and duration of organized storms through much   
   of the first half of the period, suggestive of a mainly isolated   
   severe threat.   
      
   Guidance is more consistent with increasing low-level mass response   
   near/after 00Z, which should aid in the development of a more   
   organized QLCS through the evening in east TX. This QLCS is likely   
   to accelerate eastward across parts of LA and the Lower MS Valley   
   overnight. While instability will become increasingly scant with   
   eastward extent, strengthening low/mid-level flow and effective SRH   
   will support development of one or more organized bowing segments,   
   with an attendant threat of scattered damaging winds. An increase in   
   tornado threat is also anticipated, mainly with line-embedded   
   mesovortices. But within the warm-conveyor belt region near the Gulf   
   Coast, a supercell or two may form before merging into the QLCS.   
      
   Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z, with the   
   stronger forcing becoming displaced north of the effective warm   
   sector. However, some threat for locally damaging winds and a brief   
   tornado could persist near the central Gulf Coast through the end of   
   the period.   
      
   ..Grams/Supinie.. 02/14/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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