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   AWUS01 KWNH 140351   
   FFGMPD   
   MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-140949-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0017   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1049 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Northwest TX northeast to the MO/KS/AR/OK border   
   junction   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 140349Z - 140949Z   
      
   Summary...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are   
   developing from western TX into western OK at this time.  Hourly   
   rain amounts to 2", with local totals to 4", could lead to   
   continued isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.   
      
   Discussion...An upper level low is progressing east-northeast   
   across NM, leading to regional difluence aloft.  Precipitable   
   water values have surged to 1-1.25", which considering the   
   coolness of the atmosphere, has led to saturation.  SPC   
   mesoanalyses indicate 500-1500 J/kg of MU CAPE across the region,   
   with the broadest instability pool across central OK.  This is   
   helping to explain the backbuilding convection near the southern   
   border of KS/MO.  Effective bulk shear of 40-60 kts exists   
   regionally, which has manifested itself across portions of the   
   Rolling Plains, Caprock, and Permian Basin of northwest TX.=20   
   Fairly unidirectional flow from the southwest is leading to   
   training attempts near the mesocyclones across Northwest TX.   
      
   The guidance indicates a general broadening of the instability   
   field (when using the 500+ J/kg MU CAPE region) with time, with   
   the greatest persistence across the Trans-Pecos region of western   
   TX.  This should continue to lead to a general broadening of the   
   convective pattern which could increase bouts of training and   
   possibly cell mergers between more organized convection clusters   
   and disorganized thunderstorms.  However, the broad pattern should   
   attempt to progress eastward as 850 hPa flow veers.  The best   
   mesoscale model signal for heavy rainfall over the next six hours   
   in the vicinity of the stationary front across OK.  Hourly amounts   
   to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible over the next six hours.   
    Flash flood guidance is variable across the MPD area, with some   
   areas more sensitive than others.  These sort of amounts would   
   compromise the relatively lower flash flood guidance values across   
   northwest TX and the irregular MO/KS/AR/OK border junction.=20   
   Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is possible.   
      
   Roth   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!_a6eAtseqa0om1E8gkgzPFR1_L6Sgdn7CoE2FmTbkzeqVO6GgexZW10lmq9rsvIVN0g2=   
   HKxQMYGgt-Bc18Z1u42P2cA$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...FWD...ICT...LUB...LZK...MAF...   
   OUN...SGF...SJT...TOP...TSA...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   38589714 38019342 36539264 35739489 35349581=20   
               32060045 31030356 32290359 33740150 34740112=20   
               36610057 37709955=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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