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   FOUS30 KWBC 140043   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   743 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE OZARK PLATEAU...   
      
   The Marginal risk for overnight generally looks in good shape, so=20   
   only minor changes were made with this update. One swath of higher=20   
   rainfall is expected from central OK into southeast KS and=20   
   southwest MO near and north of a stationary front. Added=20   
   convergence near this boundary should drive some training=20   
   potential, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 2" as   
   high as 40-70%, and 3" exceedance of 15-30%. Moisture is=20   
   impressive for mid February, with PWs running over 4 SD above=20   
   average in spots...but limited instability should generally cap=20   
   hourly rainfall in the 1-2" range. This combined with the dry=20   
   antecedent conditions indicates just a localized, and mostly=20   
   urban, flash flood risk.   
      
   Another axis of higher totals may evolve late tonight into early   
   Saturday across west TX as stronger forcing arrives from the west   
   kicking off additional convective development. This activity may   
   briefly train, but should then push off to east northeast fairly   
   quickly. With instability generally under 1000 j/kg, likely not=20   
   looking at enough persistence of higher rates to result in anything   
   more than a localized flash flood risk.   
      
   Chenard   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE ARKLATEX   
   TO THE MID-SOUTH...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   Adjustments to the outlook areas were based in part   
   on the HREF/RRFS neighborhood probabilities, with the Slight Risk   
   adjusted to generally coincide with the high probabilities for   
   accumulations exceeding 3 inches that were centered from the   
   ArkLaTex into the Mid South. However, the area was extended a   
   little farther south of the higher probabilities to account for   
   the typical model northerly bias, as well as some of the global   
   deterministic runs, including the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian, which   
   presented an axis of heavier amounts a little south of the hi-res   
   consensus.   
      
   Pereira   
      
   Previous Discussion...   
   A mid-latitude cyclone develops and deepens beneath a PVA over the   
   Southern/Central Plains Friday night into Saturday. This system   
   will combine two separate moisture regimes: one from the   
   subtropical Pacific and one from the Gulf of Mexico to produce   
   scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over parts of the   
   Southern Plains, Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio   
   Valleys.   
      
   The slight and marginal risk areas were expanded from what was   
   depicted on our previous issuance. This was based on a broader qpf   
   footprint signal in the latest guidance. Some showers and   
   thunderstorms from today's excessive rainfall threat will shift   
   into Missouri and the Midwest today, while the main threat develops   
   within the warm sector to the south.   
      
   A line of convection is expected to develop over the ArkLaTex this   
   evening and propagate eastward through the Lower Mississippi   
   Valley, where favorable jet dynamics (strong LLJ 30-40kts and   
   strong upper level divergence) could produce efficient rain rates.   
   PWATs will also be 2-3 stndv above normal (90th percentile) from   
   eastern Texas to northeastern Arkansas, where the current slight   
   risk is in place. It's worth noting that the Euro has a slightly   
   more southerly focused QPF footprint than the GFS and our current   
   slight risk area depict.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   Made mostly minor adjustments based on the 12Z guidance.   
      
   Pereira   
      
   Previous Discussion...   
   The inherited marginal risk area over parts of the Mid-Atlantic   
   (central Virginia) down to the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama   
   and the Florida Panhandle, was mostly unchanged. Contours were   
   expanded north into central Virginia due in part to an increased   
   signal in the GFS, but also due to clustering between several Euro,   
   Canadian and GEFS ensemble members.   
      
   Another marginal area was considered for parts of the northern and   
   central California coast, but was ultimately nixed in coordination   
   with local offices due to a lack of favorable moisture, forcing and   
   instability. All of which become more pronounced over Southern   
   California on by day 4.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-BQ0ni61THz9R8yOhshJYxJR8d0QJbXeQq7w8KNzN94w=   
   6kzPThSfTOL00U8zLiHm4ZF50HrmneMDbMaX5nQdHjOXe1A$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-BQ0ni61THz9R8yOhshJYxJR8d0QJbXeQq7w8KNzN94w=   
   6kzPThSfTOL00U8zLiHm4ZF50HrmneMDbMaX5nQdXL0PXRU$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-BQ0ni61THz9R8yOhshJYxJR8d0QJbXeQq7w8KNzN94w=   
   6kzPThSfTOL00U8zLiHm4ZF50HrmneMDbMaX5nQdMMtVBx4$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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