TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169490.weather@1:2320/105 2df78dcc   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 140028   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 140028=20   
   TXZ000-140300-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0071   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0628 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Areas affected...West Texas   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 140028Z - 140300Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A marginal threat for severe gusts and hail may develop   
   across parts of west Texas this evening. The threat is expected too   
   be to isolated for watch issuance.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor   
   imagery over west Texas. Ahead of this feature, scattered   
   thunderstorms have developed over the last couple of hours to the   
   north and west of Lubbock. In the vicinity of these storms,   
   mesoscale analysis shows a small pocket of instability in west Texas   
   with SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has   
   0-6 km shear in the 75 to 80 knot range, with some speed shear in   
   the mid-levels. This could support weak rotation within the stronger   
   cells. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7   
   C/km, which could be enough for isolated marginally severe hail. A   
   strong wind gust would also be possible. However, the weak   
   instability will be a limiting factor, and any severe threat should   
   remain very isolated through mid to late evening.   
      
   ..Broyles/Hart.. 02/14/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4hFFA5Gb6l_lnHHEey0_FmQYeQBWRgeehAjlLjAV60WzABOpzQzYFDDnlUKWY9NGunoCM_aqB=   
   mpW7AWZGHApxdjRAmM$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...   
      
   LAT...LON   33530301 34150293 34530270 34740234 34820190 34780110   
               34550064 34140050 33340064 32940092 32750127 32670175   
               32680226 32700261 32840285 33130300 33530301=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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