TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169486.weather@1:2320/105 2df74d33   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 131952   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 131951   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0151 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Valid 132000Z - 141200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional hail   
   and gusty winds this evening into the overnight hours across parts   
   of the southern Plains.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   No changes needed to the ongoing forecast.   
      
   Recent satellite imagery continues to show a shortwave trough   
   extending from the western Great Basin to off the central Baja   
   Peninsula. A lead vorticity maximum is ejecting northeastward ahead   
   of the main shortwave across northern Mexico, and ascent attendant   
   to this feature will likely begin interacting with the northwestern   
   periphery of the returning low-level moisture this evening. As   
   mentioned in the previous discussion, this interaction should   
   support isolated thunderstorms across northwest TX and southwest OK.   
   Isolated hail is the primary risk with this activity.   
      
   Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand tonight from northwest   
   TX/southwest OK into much of west TX as persistent large-scale   
   ascent is augmented by a strengthening low-level jet and associated   
   warm-air advection. A few stronger storms and/or clusters remain   
   possible overnight, with perhaps even an embedded supercell. A   
   transition to a mix of hail/wind potential is still expected during   
   the overnight hours as the convective mode trends more linear.   
   Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across OK   
   overnight, supported by strengthening warm-air advection, strong   
   shear, and modest buoyancy.   
      
   ..Mosier.. 02/13/2026   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
   An upper trough over Baja California late this morning will move   
   eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern   
   Rockies by early Saturday morning. Gradually strengthening low-level   
   flow will continue to advect somewhat richer moisture northwestward   
   from the TX Hill Country (mostly 50s surface dewpoints) into parts   
   of west TX and western/central OK through the period. Modestly   
   steepened mid-level lapse rates present will support around 500-1000   
   J/kg MUCAPE by this evening across the southern High Plains. Various   
   NAM/RAP forecast soundings show strong effective bulk shear (around   
   50-70 kt) this evening/overnight as southwesterly mid/upper-level   
   flow strengthens with the approach of the upper trough, which will   
   likely support thunderstorm organization.   
      
   Isolated thunderstorms should initially develop on the northwest   
   periphery of the low-level moisture return over parts of northwest   
   TX and vicinity late this afternoon/early evening with some hail   
   threat. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough   
   approaches the southern High Plains later this evening, a more   
   extensive southwest to northeast corridor of convection is expected.   
   One or more clusters may eventually evolve into linear bands and   
   develop east-northeastward along/near an eastward-moving Pacific   
   front.   
      
   One of these linear clusters with perhaps embedded supercells seems   
   likely to occur early Saturday morning (after 14/06Z) from parts of   
   west into northwest TX as stronger forcing for ascent overspreads   
   this region. Mainly an isolated severe hail risk with the strongest   
   updrafts this afternoon/evening should transition to a mix of   
   hail/wind potential during the overnight hours as the convective   
   mode becomes more linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection   
   over OK tonight will favor primarily elevated strong to locally   
   severe thunderstorms capable of occasional hail, perhaps extending   
   as far north as southern KS during the pre-dawn hours Saturday.   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 70   
   SEEN-BY: 220/90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 20 30 44 50 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220   
   SEEN-BY: 772/230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426