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   FOUS11 KWBC 131929   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   229 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 00Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
      
   ...Central & Southern Rockies...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A sharp upper trough over AZ/northern Mexico this evening will   
   continue eastward tonight and reach West Texas tomorrow afternoon.   
   Moisture anomalies are high, but mostly in the warm sector.   
   However, the northern reaches of PW anomalies >97th percentile   
   overnight over the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos will support   
   mountain snow that will fall heavy at times through Saturday   
   morning. The progressive movement will limit accumulations, but SW   
   flow this evening will capitalize on upslope potential in the   
   terrain until the trough axis passes through. WPC probabilities for   
   at least 4 inches of snow are >50% above 10,000ft as snow levels   
   are rather high.   
      
      
   ...Central/Western/Upstate New York...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A compact mid-level shortwave will move quickly out of Ontario and   
   through western/central NYS overnight, aiding in producing some   
   generally light snow across the region with the potential for some   
   locally moderate snow at times that will end on Saturday morning.   
   Most snowfall is likely to range between a coating-3" for much of   
   Upstate New York.   
      
      
   ...Cascades & Northern Rockies...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Troughing west of the BC and the Pac NW will dig southward into an   
   upper low west of NorCal. This will send a modest cold front into   
   the Cascades and northern Rockies tonight/Saturday and linger   
   across the region as the flow remains generally from the southwest   
   aloft. Snow levels initially around 3500-4000ft will drop to around   
   2000-3000ft overnight into Saturday, bringing snow to many of the   
   passes. Moisture will continue eastward to the northern Rockies   
   (northern ID to northwestern MT) and the typical higher elevations   
   above 5000ft will see light to modest snowfall. Snow will end in   
   the Cascades during the day Saturday and diminish (though not truly   
   end) over the Rockies into Sunday as onshore flow continues in   
   some form. Another surge of moisture will bring light snow to the   
   Cascades by Monday with even lower snow levels to around 1000ft   
   (north) to 2000 ft (south) in the Cascades, but with light amounts.   
   For day 1, WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are   
   >30% for Stevens and Snoqualmie passes. Into Monday night (late day   
   3), WPC probabilities for at least 2 inches of snow are >30% into   
   elevations as low as 2500-3000ft.   
      
      
   ...California...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   Southern extent of the anomalously deep troughing affecting the   
   Pacific Northwest (above) will result in a period of moderate to   
   locally heavy mountain snow for the Sierra Sunday into at least   
   Monday. A surface cold front, tied to an occluding low, will slowly   
   move onshore as a 120kt jet streak promotes heavier snowfall into   
   the Sierra Monday. Moisture will be modest (500-750 kg/m/s IVT and   
   PWs touching the 90th percentile) with the best moisture flux just   
   south of the region into AZ. Snow levels will generally range from   
   4500ft to 6000ft from north to south on Monday, then fall by the   
   end of this forecast period in northern areas to below 4000ft as   
   the trough approaches (and lower thereafter). Snow will continue   
   beyond this forecast period with major impacts to at least the high   
   Sierra per the WSSI-P probabilities (>50%) that increase into the   
   medium range (>80-90%). WPC probabilities for at least 18 inches of   
   snow are >50% above 6000-7000ft or so.   
      
      
   ...Central Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic...   
   Days 2.5-3...   
      
   A southern system will likely slide eastward late Sun into Mon   
   with some light wintry precipitation on the northern side, but   
   trends are toward less QPF in a marginally conducive environment   
   and probabilities for even light snow are low.   
      
      
   The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
      
   Fracasso   
      
      
   $$   
      
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