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   ACUS02 KWNS 131731   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 131730   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1130 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO   
   LA AND SOUTHWEST MS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are possible from Saturday into Saturday night   
   from parts of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated hail   
   will be possible across parts of Texas during the day, with an   
   increasing threat of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes expected   
   Saturday night from east Texas into Louisiana and southwest   
   Mississippi.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the   
   southern Plains during the day, before reaching the lower MS Valley   
   vicinity Saturday night. This system will be accompanied by a strong   
   midlevel jet (60-80 kt at 500 mb) and a consolidating surface low   
   that is forecast to eventually deepen and reach the ArkLaTex region   
   by evening. Relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in   
   the 60s F) will already be in place Saturday morning across parts of   
   TX/OK, and will eventually spread into parts of the lower MS Valley   
   by evening, in conjunction with the advancing surface low.   
      
   ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley...   
   Elevated storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from parts   
   of west/northwest TX into southern OK, which could pose an isolated   
   hail threat. Early-day convection may gradually evolve into a   
   loosely organized QLCS across north TX and vicinity, with additional   
   isolated strong to severe storm development possible into central TX   
   as the primary mid/upper shortwave trough ejects eastward. Weak to   
   locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will   
   support at least an isolated severe threat through the afternoon,   
   though CAM guidance varies regarding the coverage and duration of   
   organized storms through the first part of the period.   
      
   Guidance generally depicts increasing low-level mass response   
   near/after 00Z, which should aid the development of a more organized   
   QLCS during the evening across parts of east TX. This QLCS is   
   expected move eastward into parts of LA and lower MS Valley during   
   the late evening and overnight hours. While instability will become   
   increasingly scant with eastward extent, strengthening low/midlevel   
   flow and effective SRH will support development of one or more   
   organized bowing segments, with an attendant threat of scattered   
   damaging winds. Some increase in the tornado threat will also be   
   possible Saturday evening/night, both with line-embedded   
   mesovortices, and also potentially with any supercells within the   
   warm-conveyor belt region that eventually merge into the primary   
   QLCS.   
      
   Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z Sunday   
   morning, with the stronger forcing potentially becoming displaced   
   from the effective warm sector. However, some threat for locally   
   damaging winds and a brief tornado could persist near the LA/MS   
   coasts through the end of the forecast period.   
      
   ..Dean.. 02/13/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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