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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1100 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   1600Z Update...   
      
   The 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance still largely support the idea   
   of a Marginal Risk being maintained across the southern Plains   
   involving convective initiation that will take place this evening   
   and evolve in basically two rounds overnight. Initial shortwave   
   energy coupled with strengthening warm air advection/moisture   
   transport across western to northwest TX this evening, with   
   elevated convection poleward of a front evolving across central to   
   northeast OK and adjacent areas of the Ozark Plateau overnight   
   through early Saturday morning. The morning guidance shows a   
   southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts facilitating an=20   
   environment conducive for heavy showers and thunderstorms that may=20   
   have some localized training potential involving central to=20   
   northeast OK and perhaps parts of southeast KS and southwest MO=20   
   overnight. Secondary height fall/shortwave energy will be ejecting=20   
   out across west TX by early Saturday morning which coupled with=20   
   increasing low-level moisture and modest instability with MUCAPE=20   
   values of 500 to 1000 J/kg should support renewed convective=20   
   development here. Overall, the heaviest rains will likely tend to=20   
   be over areas of central to northeast OK this period with some 2 to   
   4 inch totals possible where any cell-training occurs. However,=20   
   antecedent conditions are dry which should be able to generally=20   
   handle these rains. That said, some spotty 1 to 2 inch/hour=20   
   rainfall rates are possible which coupled with some cell-training=20   
   may foster some localized and mainly urban runoff problems. The=20   
   Marginal Risk was ever so slightly expanded a bit more over western   
   TX and also into the Ozark Plateau.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   Previous discussion...   
      
   A deep upper-level trough will advance eastward across the   
   Southwest today. Diffluence and vorticity will spread over the   
   Southern Plains tonight, where showers and thunderstorms are   
   expected to proliferate along surface boundaries stemming from an   
   area of surface low pressure. Instability will be modest 500-700   
   J/Kg, but moisture will be quite anomalous, (PWATs 4-5 stndv & 99th   
   percentile) due to the arrival of subtropical Pacific moisture. A   
   mitigating factor will be that antecedent conditions are mostly dry   
   (moderate to severe drought + low RSM) especially on the western   
   end of the risk area.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE ARKLATEX   
   TO THE MID-SOUTH...   
      
   A mid-latitude cyclone develops and deepens beneath a PVA over the   
   Southern/Central Plains Friday night into Saturday. This system   
   will combine two separate moisture regimes: one from the   
   subtropical Pacific and one from the Gulf of Mexico to produce   
   scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over parts of the   
   Southern Plains, Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio   
   Valleys.   
      
   The slight and marginal risk areas were expanded from what was   
   depicted on our previous issuance. This was based on a broader qpf   
   footprint signal in the latest guidance. Some showers and   
   thunderstorms from today's excessive rainfall threat will shift   
   into Missouri and the Midwest today, while the main threat develops   
   within the warm sector to the south.   
      
   A line of convection is expected to develop over the ArkLaTex this   
   evening and propagate eastward through the Lower Mississippi   
   Valley, where favorable jet dynamics (strong LLJ 30-40kts and   
   strong upper level divergence) could produce efficient rain rates.   
   PWATs will also be 2-3 stndv above normal (90th percentile) from   
   eastern Texas to northeastern Arkansas, where the current slight   
   risk is in place. It's worth noting that the Euro has a slightly   
   more southerly focused QPF footprint than the GFS and our current   
   slight risk area depict.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...   
      
   The inherited marginal risk area over parts of the Mid-Atlantic   
   (central Virginia) down to the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama   
   and the Florida Panhandle, was mostly unchanged. Contours were   
   expanded north into central Virginia due in part to an increased   
   signal in the GFS, but also due to clustering between several Euro,   
   Canadian and GEFS ensemble members.   
      
   Another marginal area was considered for parts of the northern and   
   central California coast, but was ultimately nixed in coordination   
   with local offices due to a lack of favorable moisture, forcing and   
   instability. All of which become more pronounced over Southern   
   California on by day 4.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6rRkMSox_O5iLR0NBcZS3JhKcTkth5tonoz0zxzDHgHw=   
   XfmynFyBLrvOIgqQapSvTjPbFmT59K-pBYVixF6Ac2gECjo$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6rRkMSox_O5iLR0NBcZS3JhKcTkth5tonoz0zxzDHgHw=   
   XfmynFyBLrvOIgqQapSvTjPbFmT59K-pBYVixF6AcS4kslQ$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6rRkMSox_O5iLR0NBcZS3JhKcTkth5tonoz0zxzDHgHw=   
   XfmynFyBLrvOIgqQapSvTjPbFmT59K-pBYVixF6ARlYoK70$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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