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   315    
   AXNT20 KNHC 131010   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Western Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front curves   
   southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N61W to near    
   Port Pierce, Florida. The combination of wind waves and existing    
   large NW swell will maintain seas to 12 north of 30N between 55W    
   and 60W through early this morning. As the front weakens further    
   today, it will allow seas to drop below 12 ft.   
      
   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website:   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml  for more details.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 04N20W. The    
   ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01S40W. No significant convection is   
   noted at this time.   
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A stationary front meanders northwestward from central Florida to   
   the Florida Panhandle, then turns westward across the coastal   
   areas of Mississippi, Louisiana, and southeastern Texas.    
   Confirmed by local observations, patchy fog is noted along the    
   coast of southern Bay of Campeche with local visibilities down to    
   6 nm. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high at the northwestern Gulf is    
   providing light to gentle winds and slight seas for the entire Gulf.   
      
   For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the    
   weather pattern across the Gulf waters today, bringing in general    
   light to gentle winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh    
   easterly winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche through Sun.    
   Southerly return flow will increase to fresh to strong speeds on    
   Sat ahead of a cold front that will move across the west and    
   central waters Sat night and Sun. Strong S to SW winds and rough    
   seas are expected in the nort-central and NE Gulf with this    
   frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to move SE of the area by Mon.   
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...    
      
   A trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin, with    
   fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas at the south-central    
   basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas dominate   
   the southwestern, north-central and eastern Gulf, including the    
   Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Mainly gentle NE winds and   
   slight to moderate seas are noted at the northwestern Gulf.   
      
   For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will continue near the coast    
   of Colombia through the forecast period due to the pressure    
   gradient between the Colombia/Panamanian low and high pressure    
   centered N of the region. Moderate to rough seas are expected with   
   these winds. Strong winds will develop over the Windward Passage   
   and S of Dominican Republic this weekend as frontal boundaries   
   approach from the north. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and    
   moderate seas will prevail through the upcoming weekend.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   Please read the Special Features section above for details about   
   the Significant Swell across the W-central Atlantic.   
      
   A cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda    
   across 31N60W to near Port Pierce, Florida. Scattered showers are   
   seen near and up to 100 nm south and east of this feature.    
   To the east, convergent southerly winds are aided by modest    
   divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and    
   thunderstorms near the northeast coast of Hispaniola and N of Puerto   
   Rico. To the northeast, scattered moderate convection is noted    
   N of 25N between 46W and 56W. Over the far the eastern Atlantic,    
   a weakening cold front reaches southwestward from near Madeira    
   across 30N16W to near 26N28W. Outside the area mentioned in the    
   Special Features section above, gentle to moderate winds and    
   moderate seas are noted W o 55W, while fresh to strong winds and    
   rough seas prevail E of 55W.    
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from    
   31N53W to the Windward Passage by Sat morning. Hazardous marine    
   conditions near the front will diminish today as it weakens. High   
   pressure will follow the front. On Sun, S winds will increase to    
   strong speeds offshore north and central Florida, in advance of    
   another cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast on Mon.    
   Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected in the    
   wake of the front.   
      
   $$   
   ERA   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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