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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 131246   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 131245   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0645 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Valid 131300Z - 141200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty   
   winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the   
   southern Plains.   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
   An upper trough this morning over southern CA/eastern Pacific to the   
   west of Baja California will move east into the southern Rockies by   
   early Saturday morning.  Strengthening south-southeasterly 850mb   
   flow is forecast to advect richer moisture northwestward from the   
   Hill Country (50s dewpoints) into parts of west TX northeastward   
   into western/central OK.  Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled at 12   
   UTC this morning in Midland, TX (7.7 deg C/km), will aid in the   
   development of 500-1200 J/kg MUCAPE as the moist plume gradually   
   moistens/heats today.  Forecast soundings shows strong to very   
   strong effective shear (50-70 kt), which will support storm   
   organization.   
      
   Initially, isolated storms are forecast to develop on the northwest   
   periphery of moisture return over parts of northwest TX late this   
   afternoon.  As the upper trough approaches the region this evening   
   into the overnight, a more extensive southwest to northeast corridor   
   of convection is expected.  One or more clusters will likely evolve   
   into linear bands and move east-northeastward near an   
   eastward-moving Pacific front and from prior storm-generated cold   
   pools.  One of these linear clusters seems likely from parts of the   
   Permian Basin vicinity into northwest TX tonight as deeper   
   large-scale forcing for ascent pivots into the southern High Plains.   
   A predominately hail risk with the strongest storms this   
   afternoon/evening will probably transition to a mix of hail/wind   
   potential during the overnight as the storm mode becomes more   
   linear.  Strengthening low-level warm-air advection over OK tonight   
   will favor primarily elevated strong to locally severe storms   
   capable of a hail risk into perhaps as far north as southern KS   
   during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.   
      
   ..Smith/Moore.. 02/13/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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