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   ACUS48 KWNS 131000   
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   SPC AC 130959   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0359 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Valid 161200Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   It appears that a blocking high/ridge may be maintained across the   
   southern mid-latitude east central Pacific (roughly near 150W   
   longitude) through next week.  Downstream, the evolution of an   
   increasingly prominent mid-level high is forecast across the Gulf   
   Basin through Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity by the end of next week.   
   However, developments within the branching westerlies across and   
   inland of the Pacific coast remain more unclear, particularly   
   subsequent to some initial consolidation of mid-level troughing near   
   the U.S. Pacific coast by early next week.   
      
   Shorter wavelength perturbations emerging from this cyclonic regime   
   are generally forecast to progress across and east-northeast of the   
   Rockies, contributing to periodic lee cyclogenesis.  The timing of   
   potentially stronger cyclogenesis has varied within and among the   
   various model output, including one possible developing cyclone   
   across the central Great Plains into portions of the Great Lakes and   
   Ohio Valley during the early into middle portion of next week.   
   Regardless of the strength, however, guidance has been consistent   
   indicating that limited warm sector boundary-layer moisture return   
   will probably tend to inhibit severe thunderstorm development.   
      
   Subsequent, renewed (potentially strong) surface cyclogenesis   
   appears possible to the lee of the Rockies later next week. Model   
   spread by that time is notable, but an increasing moist southerly   
   return flow off the Gulf does appear probable, around the western   
   flank of the subtropical ridge.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/13/2026   
      
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