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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 130830   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 130829   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0229 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS   
   PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST VICINITY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk   
   for severe weather, may continue into the day Sunday across parts of   
   the eastern Gulf Coast region.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Within the prevailing split flow across the Pacific, a prominent   
   blocking ridge centered over the mid-latitude Pacific (near 160W)   
   may undergo further amplification toward the higher latitudes,   
   across and north-northwest of the Aleutians in mid/upper levels.  As   
   this occurs, and a vigorous downstream short wave trough digs   
   near/offshore of the British Columbia coast, a significant mid-level   
   trough initially over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific is   
   forecast to slowly accelerate toward the California/Baja coast.  It   
   appears that a shorter wavelength perturbation pivoting through the   
   base of this feature will support renewed cyclogenesis, but this is   
   generally forecast to occur and remain offshore of central and   
   southern California coastal areas through 12Z Monday, as an initial   
   occluding cyclone weakens to the north and northwest.   
      
   Downstream, guidance suggests that flow across the Rockies into the   
   western Atlantic may trend more zonal, with short wave developments   
   within the converging branches of westerlies remaining out of phase.   
   In the southern branch, mid-level ridging is forecast to broaden   
   eastward across the southern Rockies through lower Mississippi   
   Valley, in the wake of mid-level short wave troughing progressing   
   into and across much of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by late   
   Sunday night.   
      
   Spread within the latest model output appears to be decreasing   
   concerning this troughing.  A mid-level cyclonic circulation,   
   associated with a weakening surface cyclone, may progress to the lee   
   of the southern Appalachians before weakening, as trailing short   
   wave troughing tends to dig across the northeastern Gulf and   
   adjacent eastern Gulf coast through Florida Peninsula.   
      
   ...Eastern Gulf States...   
   The strongest portion of the weakening jet core, particularly at   
   mid-levels, may remain largely offshore across the north central   
   through northeastern Gulf through much of the day Sunday.  At the   
   same time, southerly warm sector low-level wind fields are also   
   forecast to weaken, as the surface cyclone begins to weaken.  It   
   appears that this may commence during the morning, though how fast   
   remains uncertain due to lingering model spread.   
      
   It is possible that a fairly organized convective system may be   
   ongoing at 12Z Sunday across eastern Mississippi through parts of   
   southeastern Louisiana, though NAM forecast soundings suggest that   
   this activity may be based above at least a shallow saturated   
   surface-based layer with moist adiabatic or more stable lapse rates.   
   This may remain the case as activity develops eastward, with   
   stronger convection becoming increasing focused closer to eastern   
   Gulf coastal areas, and perhaps being maintained into northern   
   portions of the Florida Peninsula by Sunday evening.  However,   
   strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail may still be   
   possible with stronger storms, before convection weakens.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/13/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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