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   FOUS30 KWBC 130825   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   325 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   ...There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across portions=20   
   of the Southern Plains today...   
      
   A deep upper-level trough will advance eastward across the   
   Southwest today. Diffluence and vorticity will spread over the=20   
   Southern Plains tonight, where showers and thunderstorms are=20   
   expected to proliferate along surface boundaries stemming from an=20   
   area of surface low pressure. Instability will be modest 500-700=20   
   J/Kg, but moisture will be quite anomalous, (PWATs 4-5 stndv & 99th   
   percentile) due to the arrival of subtropical Pacific moisture. A=20   
   mitigating factor will be that antecedent conditions are mostly dry   
   (moderate to severe drought + low RSM) especially on the western=20   
   end of the risk area.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   ...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall from the ArkLaTex   
   to Mid-South on Saturday..   
      
   A mid-latitude cyclone develops and deepens beneath a PVA over the   
   Southern/Central Plains Friday night into Saturday. This system=20   
   will combine two separate moisture regimes: one from the=20   
   subtropical Pacific and one from the Gulf of Mexico to produce   
   scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over parts of the=20   
   Southern Plains, Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio   
   Valleys.   
      
   The slight and marginal risk areas were expanded from what was   
   depicted on our previous issuance. This was based on a broader qpf   
   footprint signal in the latest guidance. Some showers and=20   
   thunderstorms from today's excessive rainfall threat will shift=20   
   into Missouri and the Midwest today, while the main threat develops   
   within the warm sector to the south.=20   
      
   A line of convection is expected to develop over the ArkLaTex this   
   evening and propagate eastward through the Lower Mississippi=20   
   Valley, where favorable jet dynamics (strong LLJ 30-40kts and=20   
   strong upper level divergence) could produce efficient rain rates.=20   
   PWATs will also be 2-3 stndv above normal (90th percentile) from=20   
   eastern Texas to northeastern Arkansas, where the current slight=20   
   risk is in place. It's worth noting that the Euro has a slightly=20   
   more southerly focused QPF footprint than the GFS and our current=20   
   slight risk area depict.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   ...There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across portions   
   of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Sunday...   
      
   The inherited marginal risk area over parts of the Mid-Atlantic   
   (central Virginia) down to the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama=20   
   and the Florida Panhandle, was mostly unchanged. Contours were=20   
   expanded north into central Virginia due in part to an increased=20   
   signal in the GFS, but also due to clustering between several Euro,   
   Canadian and GEFS ensemble members.   
      
   Another marginal area was considered for parts of the northern and   
   central California coast, but was ultimately nixed in coordination   
   with local offices due to a lack of favorable moisture, forcing and   
   instability. All of which become more pronounced over Southern   
   California on by day 4.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4o8kGXgBt-kkmu3pTXOqjst6AeEt-SrqlzAvMLqGgKwY=   
   3GVSOhQHgN79quVWFGfOjWvV0GmV43q2ddv-cT2vRrEdDVE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4o8kGXgBt-kkmu3pTXOqjst6AeEt-SrqlzAvMLqGgKwY=   
   3GVSOhQHgN79quVWFGfOjWvV0GmV43q2ddv-cT2v7lEHKbE$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4o8kGXgBt-kkmu3pTXOqjst6AeEt-SrqlzAvMLqGgKwY=   
   3GVSOhQHgN79quVWFGfOjWvV0GmV43q2ddv-cT2vsZRBfCw$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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