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   ACUS02 KWNS 130559   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 130557   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1157 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY   
   INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO   
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Great Plains   
   into lower Mississippi Valley, mainly late Saturday afternoon   
   through Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe   
   weather.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the central   
   into eastern mid-latitude Pacific.  Downstream of a prominent   
   building mid-level ridge, it appears that a significant mid-level   
   trough will dig offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast Saturday through   
   Saturday night, accompanied by at least modest surface cyclogenesis.   
      
      
   Further downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to continue   
   building inland across the southern Great Basin and southern   
   California through much of the Four Corners states.  Guidance   
   indicates that a preceding short wave trough will remain progressive   
   across and east of the southern Great Plains, in the wake of   
   larger-scale troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard.   
   However, there remains notable spread among the various model output   
   concerning the movement of this perturbation across Texas toward the   
   lower Mississippi Valley through this period.   
      
   Forcing for ascent accompanying this short wave is forecast to   
   support surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, but   
   this may remain modest to weak, particularly across the southern   
   Great Plains, with the most notable deepening generally not forecast   
   to occur until Saturday night across southeast Texas into the lower   
   Mississippi Valley.   
      
   ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley...   
   It appears that widespread, layered cloud cover and precipitation   
   will precede the short wave trough through much of the south central   
   U.S. by 12Z Saturday, and this may tend to inhibit potential for   
   appreciable destabilization, despite an influx of Gulf   
   boundary-layer moisture characterized by mid 50s to mid 60s F   
   surface dew points across much of Texas and Oklahoma.  At least   
   somewhat drier air advecting in mid-levels to the south of the Red   
   River might allow for daytime warming and breaks in the low-level   
   overcast.  However, stronger mid-level cooling, to the north of a   
   70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak propagating south of the Texas Big Bend   
   toward northwest Gulf coastal areas, might be the primary   
   contributor to destabilization.  Based on forecast soundings, most   
   unstable parcels might remain mostly rooted above a saturated   
   near-surface layer with generally moist adiabatic lapse rates,   
   particularly across southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi   
   Valley.   
      
   Even so, the destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 500+   
   J/kg), in the presence of strong deeper-layer shear, may become   
   supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development posing a risk for   
   severe hail, at least initially.  Aided by favorable large-scale   
   forcing for ascent, there does appear potential for stronger   
   convection to consolidate and organize across central toward   
   southeastern Texas late Saturday afternoon into evening.  As this   
   occurs, the development of strong surface gusts might not be out of   
   the question.  Tornadic potential may be limited due to weak near   
   surface lapse rates/instability, but low-level hodographs could   
   become more conducive across southeastern Texas into the lower   
   Mississippi Saturday night, as the surface cyclone deepens.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/13/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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