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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 130526   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 130525   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1125 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty   
   winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the   
   southern Plains.   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
      
   Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave   
   trough off the Baja Peninsula. This southern-stream feature is   
   beginning to eject northeast in response to the Great Basin/CA   
   trough digging toward the lower CO River Valley. By early evening,   
   00z model guidance suggests this southern short wave will deamplify   
   as it translates across northern Mexico, then into the southern High   
   Plains during the overnight hours. Modest 12hr height falls will   
   overspread this region and southeasterly 850mb flow is expected to   
   respond and increase across the Edwards Plateau into western OK   
   ahead of the short wave. As a result, a modified Gulf air mass will   
   begin to advance inland and 50s surface dew points are expected to   
   overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, with further   
   moistening expected along the I35 corridor well into the overnight   
   hours.   
      
   Latest guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted   
   from far West TX into western OK such that 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE is   
   expected prior to potential convective development. Ample deep layer   
   shear will be present for organized updrafts and an increasing LLJ   
   should encourage convection during the overnight hours. Forecast   
   soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22-23z   
   and HREF guidance supports this with isolated-scattered storms   
   evolving across far West TX into western OK by early evening. This   
   activity will gradually increase in areal coverage as it   
   spreads/develops east-northeast during the overnight hours. Wind   
   profiles favor supercell development and large hail will be the   
   primary concern, along with gust potential. Some consideration was   
   given to increasing severe probabilities across this region but   
   instability is not expected to be particularly noteworthy. Will   
   continue to monitor this region as moisture returns to the southern   
   Plains.   
      
   ..Darrow/Supinie.. 02/13/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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