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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   240 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Otto   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   ...There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Across Portions   
   of the Southern Plains on Friday...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   The 12Z guidance did not present any reason to make significant   
   changes to the previous outlook, so made only minor adjustments.   
   The 12Z HREF showed high neighborhood probabilities for   
   accumulations exceeding an inch throughout the Marginal Risk area,   
   with embedded high probabilities for amounts over 2 inches centered   
   over Northwest Texas, southwestern and northwestern Oklahoma.   
      
   Previous Discussion...   
   Moist southerly flow from the Gulf will begin to increase across   
   the Southern Plains during the day Friday and especially into the   
   evening/overnight hours as a southern-stream upper-trough   
   approaches the region from the Southwest. This will help to   
   reinforce a frontal boundary left from prior shortwave(s) passage   
   with a roughly west or west-southwesterly axis from the western   
   Ozarks through Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. The late arrival   
   of an appreciable combination of increasing low level winds along   
   the boundary and height falls from the approaching upper-trough   
   should limit any storm development until after 00Z. The lack of   
   particularly notable moisture (surface dewpoints less than 60)   
   given that this will be day one of return flow as well as the onset   
   of night will lead to limited/elevated instability, with the   
   chance that development could also be mostly north of the quasi-   
   stationary boundary. Additionally, antecedent conditions are rather   
   dry suggesting initial rainfall would be mostly beneficial.   
   Nevertheless, model guidance has been consistent in depicting the   
   potential of locally heavy bouts of rainfall in the 2-2.5" range   
   which, if realized, could lead to some isolated flooding concerns   
   particularly for urban areas.   
      
   Pereira/Putnam   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   ...There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall from the ArkLaTex   
   to Mid-South Saturday...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   The higher probabilities for amounts exceeding 2 inches from the   
   ensemble guidance, along with the consensus of the deterministic=20   
   amounts, suggested pulling the eastern edge of the Marginal Risk a   
   little further west. Otherwise, similar to the Day 2 Outlook, made   
   only minor adjustments.   
      
   Previous Discussion...   
   The upper-trough will fully emerge over the Southern Plains on   
   Saturday and progress eastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley   
   by Sunday morning. Consolidating/deepening surface low pressure   
   will sweep eastward in tandem with an expected track based on the   
   latest model guidance from the Red River Valley east-northeast   
   through the Ozarks and into the Mid-South, with an eastward   
   extending warm front and trailing cold front. A strengthening low   
   level jet with an additional day of moist southerly return flow   
   from the Gulf will help to better prime the warm sector with   
   dewpoints into the 60s and some rather modest but relatively higher   
   instability in the 500 J/KG range.   
      
   Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in   
   vicinity of the low and eastward along the warm front, roughly in   
   the western Ozarks vicinity, with the potential for some lingering   
   isolated flooding concerns. More potent thunderstorms capable of   
   locally heavy rainfall are expected to develop with daytime heating   
   southwest along the trailing cold front through the ArkLaTex and   
   into eastern Texas. Increasing wind fields aloft, deep-layer flow   
   roughly parallel to the boundary, and eastward progression of the   
   cold front will likely lead to a line of numerous, potentially   
   organized thunderstorms with training potential, increasing the   
   likelihood of some locally heavy totals. Additional storms may   
   develop ahead of the surface low track in vicinity of the warm   
   front helping to prime soils and increase totals. However, the   
   front is expected to remain progressive, which will keep an upper   
   limit on rainfall totals, particularly with southern extent. A   
   Slight Risk has been maintained from the ArkLaTex northeast into   
   the Mid-South roughly following the expected low track. While   
   antecedent conditions are generally dry, a consensus of model   
   guidance supports areal average rainfall in the 1.5-2" range, with   
   locally heavier totals of 3-4", which could still lead to some   
   scattered instances of flash flooding. The latest 00Z model   
   guidance suggests the axis of heaviest rainfall is more likely on   
   the southeastern side of the Slight Risk, but have avoided any   
   significant adjustments for now, especially outside of the hi-res   
   window.   
      
   Pereira/Putnam   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4gRHbyhv8xYdnB0mTTjct3dGEC-VYqCGRk1-GBuo4Ket=   
   8HxtT93Xc5PlfQvkL9xmpThBgDz__o-Q9ooUmFDzhtv-HhY$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4gRHbyhv8xYdnB0mTTjct3dGEC-VYqCGRk1-GBuo4Ket=   
   8HxtT93Xc5PlfQvkL9xmpThBgDz__o-Q9ooUmFDzYA4WLbE$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4gRHbyhv8xYdnB0mTTjct3dGEC-VYqCGRk1-GBuo4Ket=   
   8HxtT93Xc5PlfQvkL9xmpThBgDz__o-Q9ooUmFDzBT3USg0$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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