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   ACUS03 KWNS 121933   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 121933   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0133 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe storms are expected from portions of   
   Oklahoma and Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday   
   afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong to locally damaging wind   
   gusts are the most likely hazard.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A strong positively tilted, southern-stream shortwave trough is   
   forecast to extend from the central High Plains southwestward into   
   northern Mexico early Saturday. A pair of vorticity maxima will be   
   embedded within this shortwave: the lead vorticity max moving   
   through OK into the Lower MO Valley/Ozarks with the other farther   
   southwest at the base of the trough over northern Mexico. This   
   shortwave is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the   
   southern Plains throughout the day, with the vorticity max (and   
   associated jetlet) remaining within the base of the trough   
   throughout the period. This evolution will result in strong forcing   
   for ascent across TX and the Lower MS Valley as the shortwave moves   
   eastward.   
      
   Mass response ahead of this system will result in significant   
   low-level moisture advection across TX and the Lower MS Valley, with   
   60s dewpoints likely in place by late Saturday afternoon across much   
   of east TX and adjacent far west LA. Mid 60s dewpoints are possible   
   from the middle TX Coast through the Brazos Valley. Thunderstorms,   
   including some severe storms, are expected as the progressing   
   shortwave interacts with this moist and modestly buoyant airmass.   
      
   ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley...   
   Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across   
   northwest TX and western OK, supported by strong warm-air advection   
   in the vicinity of a sharpening frontal zone. Buoyancy will be   
   modest, but strong deep-layer vertical shear suggests a few   
   organized updrafts capable of hail are possible. These storms will   
   likely be elevated, but localized ascent attendant to the lead   
   vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis (and associated   
   potential for a more linear storm mode) could still result in a gust   
   or two reaching the surface.   
      
   Additional thunderstorms will likely begin during the afternoon   
   across the Edwards Plateau vicinity as the shortwave trough moves   
   into the region, resulting in increased large-scale ascent as well   
   as supporting an eastward push of the cold front. Thunderstorms are   
   expected along this front as it surges eastward, with storms likely   
   remaining close to the primary frontal zone. As such, a strong   
   convective line appears probable. However, despite the airmass   
   modification mentioned in synopsis, modest heating and poor lapse   
   rates will support only modest destabilization over the warm sector.   
   This should temper updraft strength and the overall severe   
   potential. Damaging gusts within the frontal convective appears to   
   be the primary risk, which could extend as far east as southwestern   
   MS and southeast LA given the expectation that modest buoyancy will   
   remain in these regions throughout the night.   
      
   Moderate to strong low-level shear supports a low-probability   
   tornado risk from the middle TX Coast into southwest LA, but only if   
   updrafts can be maintained ahead of the front. Confidence in this   
   scenario is currently low given the warm temperatures aloft and   
   resulting modest buoyancy within the warm sector.   
      
   ..Mosier.. 02/12/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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