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   FOUS11 KWBC 121815   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   115 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 00Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
      
   ...Central & Southern Rockies...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A broad upper-level trough lifting northeastward over Baja   
   California will continue to funnel anomalous moisture into the   
   southern Rockies region through Friday with modest 500-700mb   
   Q-vector convergence over the central Rockies. The lack of a   
   continental polar (cP) airmass is keeping periods of snow confined   
   to elevations above 8,000ft in the Wasatch and CO Rockies into   
   Thursday night. A brief lull in the snowfall occurs Thursday night,   
   but heavier snowfall returns to the Central and Southern Rockies   
   on Friday as the aforementioned upper trough moves east towards AZ.   
   700-500mb height falls, 500mb PVA, and PWs above the 90th   
   climatological percentile will support mountain snow as far south   
   as the Gila Mountains to as far east as the Sangre De Cristo range.   
   Similar to Thursday's snowfall, the lack of a reasonably cold   
   airmass will keep snow levels above 7,000ft, with the heavier   
   snowfall totals residing above 8,000ft. The increased upper-level   
   synoptic-scale forcing will improve snowfall rates in the higher   
   terrain compared to Thursday. 48-hour WPC probabilities show low-   
   to-moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall totals >4" in the   
   Wasatch, the AZ Gila Mountains, and the CO/NM Rockies, with the   
   higher confidence in snowfall >4" being above 9,000ft. In the peaks   
   of the CO Rockies and Gila Mountains, there are some low chance   
   probabilities (<30%) for snowfall totals >8" through Saturday.   
      
      
   ...Northern New York...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   A progressive 500mb vorticity max over Ontario Friday afternoon   
   will provide sufficient upper-level ascent atop a low-level warm   
   front driven by a narrow sliver of 850mb WAA. Guidance is coming   
   into better agreement on a period of moderate snow, potentially   
   falling heavily at times, along the shores of Lake Ontario on east   
   into the Tug Hill and Adirondacks Friday night. Mean flow out of   
   the NW with residual 700-300mb moisture will support lingering   
   periods of snow into the Tug Hill and Adirondacks into Saturday   
   morning before tapering off by Saturday afternoon. Most snowfall is   
   likely to range between a coating-3" for much of northern New   
   York, although the Tug Hill and Adirondacks do show low chances   
   (<20%) for localized amounts >4" through Saturday morning.   
      
      
   ...Cascades & Northern Rockies...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   An upper-level trough in the Gulf of Alaska will dive south just   
   off the coast of British Columbia and direct a plume of rich   
   Pacific moisture at the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon and   
   through Saturday morning. A passing cold front and height falls in   
   advance of the encroaching upper trough will cause snow levels to   
   drop as low as 2,000ft in the Olympics and Cascades. Elevations in   
   the WA Cascades above 4,000ft sport the better chances for snowfall   
   amounts surpassing 6", while most elevations below 3,000ft range   
   between a coating-3". WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of   
   snow for Stevens and Snoqualmie passes are between 30-60%. The   
   plume of Pacific moisture spills eastward into the Northern Rockies   
   with the Bitterroots, Sawtooth, and Lewis Ranges most likely to   
   receive measurable snowfall starting Friday evening and continuing   
   throughout the day Saturday. Similar to the Cascades, most snowfall   
   totals will be minor (coating-3"), although some localized totals   
   >6" in the peaks of the Bitterroots and Lewis Range are possible.   
   Lastly, the passing cold front will sink southward over the OR   
   Cascades as snow levels remain around 4,000ft.   
      
      
   ...California...   
   Day 3...   
      
   By the end of Day 3 (00z Mon), the upper trough approaching the   
   West Coast is forecast to deepen into an anomalous upper low (below   
   the 1st climatological percentile per the 00z NAEFS). In response,   
   subtropical moisture will begin to move inland across northern   
   California ahead of the cold front extending on the eastern   
   periphery of the upper level system. Snow levels are expected to   
   start around 5,000ft during this time frame. WPC probabilities   
   currently reach 40-60% for at least 8 inches of snowfall across the   
   Klamath Mts and Shasta Siskiyous. Much heavier snowfall is   
   forecast across the Sierra Nevada and the California ranges after   
   00z Mon, see WPC's extended range discussion for more information.   
      
      
      
   The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
      
   Snell/Mullinax   
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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