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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL   
   1118 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to   
   marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours   
   across portions of western Texas into south central Oklahoma.   
      
   ...Texas and Oklahoma...   
      
   A positive-tilt upper trough oriented from NV to just offshore from   
   southern CA/northwest Mexico Friday morning, will shift east through   
   the period, emerging over the central High Plains to southern   
   Rockies by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing   
   southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread TX and OK. Lee low   
   development over the southern High Plains will foster increasing   
   south/southeasterly low-level flow across OK/TX, and modest boundary   
   layer moisture will spread northwest across much of TX into OK.   
   Mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints are expected across   
   western/central TX into central OK. As cooling aloft ensues amid   
   moistening vertical thermodynamic profiles, modest destabilization   
   is expected across western TX and perhaps into southwest OK. MLCAPE   
   values are generally forecast in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with   
   weaker elevated instability expected with northeast extent into   
   central OK.   
      
   Large-scale ascent will increase by late afternoon/early evening,   
   and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by 00z. With   
   temperatures warming into the 70s F across western TX, initial   
   convection may briefly be surface-based. However, with nocturnal   
   stabilization of the boundary-layer, convection will tend to become   
   elevated with time. Supercell wind profiles, characterized by   
   southeasterly low-level flow veering with height to southwesterly   
   flow in the mid/upper levels, will support storm organization.   
   Elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km, and steepening midlevel   
   lapse rates suggest isolated large hail will be the primary risk   
   with convection over western TX into south central OK, though a   
   couple of strong gusts also could accompany storms that are   
   surface-based.   
      
   Storm coverage will increase through the evening with northeast   
   extent as a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet increases across TX/OK.   
   A strong storm or two could develop into central OK during the   
   nighttime hours and produce small hail, but weaker midlevel lapse   
   rates and MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg should temper the severe risk.   
      
   ..15_ows.. 02/12/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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