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   AXNT20 KNHC 121016   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning:    
   A tight pressure gradient between high pressure SE of Bermuda and   
   lower pressure over northwest Colombia is supporting gale force   
   ENE winds offshore Colombia near Barranquilla early this morning,   
   along with seas of up to 11 ft (3.5 m). The gradient will relax   
   later today as the high pressure moves farther east, allowing    
   gales to end.   
      
   Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts    
   issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:   
   ttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml  and   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php   
     for more details on these events.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of   
   Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N23W, then continues to 02N22W.    
   The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 00N32W. Scattered moderate to    
   strong convection is evident from 00N to 02N between 29W and 32W.   
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A nearly stationary front resides along the northern Gulf coast   
   from the Florida Panhandle to Deep South Texas. South of this   
   boundary, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 26N92W is   
   dominating the weather over the basin. A generally light,   
   anticyclonic flow is established over the basin, except for gentle   
   NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 3 ft or less.   
      
   For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the    
   weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Fri, bringing light   
   to gentle SE winds. Southerly winds will increase to moderate to    
   fresh speeds Fri night ahead of a cold front that will moves cross   
   the west and central waters Sat night and Sun. Strong winds and    
   rough seas are possible in the northern Gulf with this frontal system.   
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...    
      
   See the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.   
      
   A surface trough that extends along 68W through the Mona Passage   
   is leading to scattered moderate convection within 120 nm south of   
   Puerto Rico. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail, with moderate to   
   fresh trades across most of the basin, with the except of the NW,   
   where gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing. Seas are 5 to   
   7 ft in the central and eastern basin, 5 to 9 ft in the SW, and 3   
   to 5 ft in the NW.   
      
   For the forecast, gale-force winds will end early this morning    
   offshore Colombia, but will pulse to near gale-force again tonight   
   due to the pressure gradient between the Colombia/Panamanian low    
   and high pressure centered N of the region. Winds will continue to   
   pulse to strong nightly thereafter. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh    
   trades will prevail through the weekend.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   Large NW swell over the central Atlantic continues to decay this   
   morning and seas have now fallen below 12 ft. Still, the long-   
   period-swell is leading to widespread rough seas of 8-11 ft for   
   all waters E of 60W. Across the same area, S of 25N, moderate to    
   fresh trades dominate. A dissipating cold stationary front from    
   31N31W to 25N45W separates two high pressure centers that are    
   providing waters N of 25N with mainly gentle winds.    
      
   Waters W of 60W and S of 25N are being dominated by ridging    
   associated with the western high pressure, centered near 30N50W    
   with 1022 mb. This is inducing gentle winds above moderate seas. N   
   of 25N, SW winds have increased to strong ahead of a cold front    
   that is sagging southward to just N of the area. Already rough    
   seas in this area of strong winds continue to build.    
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will enter NW waters   
   this morning. Ahead of the front, strong SW to W winds will    
   prevail N of 28N, along with rough to very rough seas. These    
   hazardous conditions will spread east through tonight, then    
   diminish Fri as the front weakens. By Fri night the cold front    
   will extend from near 31N55W to the SE Bahamas, and the boundary    
   will sag SE and out of the area Sat night. On Sun, S winds will    
   increase to strong offshore Florida, in advance of another cold    
   front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon.   
      
   $$   
   Konarik   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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