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   Excessive Rainfall Discussion...CORRECTED   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   331 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Putnam   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   ...There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Across Portions   
   of the Southern Plains on Friday...   
      
   Moist southerly flow from the Gulf will begin to increase across=20   
   the Southern Plains during the day Friday and especially into the=20   
   evening/overnight hours as a southern-stream upper-trough=20   
   approaches the region from the Southwest. This will help to=20   
   reinforce a frontal boundary left from prior shortwave(s) passage=20   
   with a roughly west or west-southwesterly axis from the western=20   
   Ozarks through Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. The late arrival=20   
   of an appreciable combination of increasing low level winds along=20   
   the boundary and height falls from the approaching upper-trough=20   
   should limit any storm development until after 00Z. The lack of=20   
   particularly notable moisture (surface dewpoints less than 60)=20   
   given that this will be day one of return flow as well as the onset   
   of night will lead to limited/elevated instability, with the=20   
   chance that development could also be mostly north of the quasi-=20   
   stationary boundary. Additionally, antecedent conditions are rather   
   dry suggesting initial rainfall would be mostly beneficial.=20   
   Nevertheless, model guidance has been consistent in depicting the=20   
   potential of locally heavy bouts of rainfall in the 2-2.5" range=20   
   which, if realized, could lead to some isolated flooding concerns=20   
   particularly for urban areas.=20   
      
   Putnam   
      
      
   Day 3=20   
   Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   ...There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall from the ArkLaTex=20   
   to Mid-South Saturday...   
      
   The upper-trough will fully emerge over the Southern Plains on=20   
   Saturday and progress eastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley   
   by Sunday morning. Consolidating/deepening surface low pressure=20   
   will sweep eastward in tandem with an expected track based on the=20   
   latest model guidance from the Red River Valley east-northeast=20   
   through the Ozarks and into the Mid-South, with an eastward=20   
   extending warm front and trailing cold front. A strengthening low=20   
   level jet with an additional day of moist southerly return flow=20   
   from the Gulf will help to better prime the warm sector with=20   
   dewpoints into the 60s and some rather modest but relatively higher   
   instability in the 500 J/KG range.=20   
      
   Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in=20   
   vicinity of the low and eastward along the warm front, roughly in=20   
   the western Ozarks vicinity, with the potential for some lingering=20   
   isolated flooding concerns. More potent thunderstorms capable of=20   
   locally heavy rainfall are expected to develop with daytime heating   
   southwest along the trailing cold front through the ArkLaTex and=20   
   into eastern Texas. Increasing wind fields aloft, deep-layer flow=20   
   roughly parallel to the boundary, and eastward progression of the=20   
   cold front will likely lead to a line of numerous, potentially=20   
   organized thunderstorms with training potential, increasing the=20   
   likelihood of some locally heavy totals. Additional storms may=20   
   develop ahead of the surface low track in vicinity of the warm=20   
   front helping to prime soils and increase totals. However, the=20   
   front is expected to remain progressive, which will keep an upper=20   
   limit on rainfall totals, particularly with southern extent. A=20   
   Slight Risk has been maintained from the ArkLaTex northeast into=20   
   the Mid-South roughly following the expected low track. While=20   
   antecedent conditions are generally dry, a consensus of model=20   
   guidance supports areal average rainfall in the 1.5-2" range, with=20   
   locally heavier totals of 3-4", which could still lead to some=20   
   scattered instances of flash flooding. The latest 00Z model=20   
   guidance suggests the axis of heaviest rainfall is more likely on=20   
   the southeastern side of the Slight Risk, but have avoided any=20   
   significant adjustments for now, especially outside of the hi-res=20   
   window.=20   
      
   Putnam   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!46NEEr1pCetZo53fznzHj33-cEYhtRPJBx1aHQ4g1drR=   
   2VXVqQu_UV20qOx-FZSR3yGhAcEwpFWJkI-LgdJo9q9SLxM$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!46NEEr1pCetZo53fznzHj33-cEYhtRPJBx1aHQ4g1drR=   
   2VXVqQu_UV20qOx-FZSR3yGhAcEwpFWJkI-LgdJofW1-6Ms$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!46NEEr1pCetZo53fznzHj33-cEYhtRPJBx1aHQ4g1drR=   
   2VXVqQu_UV20qOx-FZSR3yGhAcEwpFWJkI-LgdJov5d0nc0$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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