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   FOUS11 KWBC 120819   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   319 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
      
   ...Central & Southern Rockies...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A broad upper-level trough west of Baja California is funneling   
   anomalous moisture into the Four Corners region today with modest   
   500-700mb Q-vector convergence over the central Rockies. The lack   
   of a continental polar (cP) airmass is keeping periods of snow   
   confined to elevations above 8,000ft in the Wasatch and CO Rockie   
   today and into Thursday night. A brief lull in the snowfall occurs   
   Thursday night, but heavier snowfall returns to the Central and   
   Southern Rockies on Friday as the aforementioned upper trough   
   moves east towards AZ. 700-500mb height falls, 500mb PVA, and PWs   
   above the 90th climatological percentile will support mountain   
   snow as far south as the Gila Mountains to as far east as the   
   Sangre De Cristo range. Similar to Thursday's snowfall, the lack of   
   a reasonably cold airmass will keep snow levels above 7,000ft,   
   with the heavier snowfall totals residing above 8,000ft. The   
   increased upper-level synoptic-scale forcing will improve snowfall   
   rates in the higher terrain compared to Thursday. 48-hour WPC   
   probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall   
   totals >4" in the Wasatch, the AZ Gila Mountains, and the CO/NM   
   Rockies, with the higher confidence in snowfall >4" being above   
   9,000ft. In the peaks of the CO Rockies and Gila Mountains, there   
   are some low chance probabilities (<30%) for snowfall totals >8"   
   through Saturday morning.   
      
   ...Northern New York...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   A progressive 500mb vorticity max over Ontario Friday afternoon   
   will provide sufficient upper-level ascent atop a low-level warm   
   front driven by a narrow sliver of 850mb WAA. Guidance is coming   
   into better agreement on a period of moderate snow, potentially   
   falling heavily at times, along the shores of Lake Ontario on east   
   into the Tug Hill and Adirondacks Friday night. Mean flow out of   
   the NW with residual 700-300mb moisture will support lingering   
   periods of snow into the Tug Hill and Adirondacks into Saturday   
   morning before tapering off by Saturday afternoon. Most snowfall is   
   likely to range between a coating-3" for much of northern New   
   York, although the Tug Hill and Adirondacks do show low chances   
   (<20%) for localized amounts >4" through Saturday morning.   
      
   ...Washington Cascades & Northern Rockies...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   An upper-level trough in the Gulf of Alaska will dive south just   
   off the coast of British Columbia and direct a plume of rich   
   Pacific moisture at the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon and   
   through Saturday morning. A passing cold front and height falls in   
   advance of the encroaching upper trough will cause snow levels to   
   drop as low as 2,000ft in the Olympics and Cascades. Elevations in   
   the WA Cascades above 4,000ft sport the better chances for snowfall   
   amounts surpassing 6", while most elevations below 3,000ft range   
   between a coating-3". WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of   
   snow for Stevens and Snoqualmie passes are between 30-50%. The   
   plume of Pacific moisture spills eastward into the Northern Rockies   
   with the Bitterroots, Sawtooth, and Lewis Ranges most likely to   
   receive measurable snowfall starting Friday evening and continuing   
   throughout the day Saturday. Similar to the Cascades, most snowfall   
   totals will be minor (coating-3"), although some localized totals   
   >6" in the peaks of the Bitterroots and Lewis Range are possible.   
      
      
   The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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